000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262105
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Off the Southern and Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
along an area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear generally favorable for development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
middle part of this week as the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. With
this, there is a medium chance for tropical formation within the
next 48 hours and a high chance for the next 7 days. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 111W from 05N to 16N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 14N 
to 18N between 106W and 115W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 135W from 04N to 14N, moving W
at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 1011mb low pres near 
08N91W to another 1011 mb low pres near 14N101W to 07N131W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N135W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 18N and E of 
122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 18N115W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle 
northerly winds prevail across north and central sections and are
southerly elsewhere. Seas across the central and southern Gulf 
are up to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring across 
the nearshore waters from Puerto Angel to Acapulco winds, where 
seas are 6 to 7 ft. Winds are generally light elsewhere with seas
of 5 to 6 ft prevailing across the remaining Mexican offshore 
waters. Hazy conditions are expected across the waters of 
southwestern Mexico.

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will persist across 
offshore waters W of 110W through tonight before weakening 
modestly as high pressure reorganizes farther NW of the area. A 
tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough
over western Mexico will continue to support pulsing fresh to 
strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through Wed. Pulsing 
fresh southerly winds expected across the south and central Gulf 
of California during overnight hours. A broad area of low 
pressure is expected to get better organized on Tue offshore of 
southern Mexico. As this occurs, expect fresh to strong winds to 
shift westward across the nearshore waters of southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development of this broad system. A tropical depression is likely
to form during the middle part of this week as the system moves 
generally west- northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast
of Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Another low pressure may 
form offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue or Wed move west- 
northwestward and offshore of the Tehuantepec region Wed night 
and Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail 
across the offshore waters S of 09N. Across the offshore waters 
of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW 
winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central
America through mid-week, except moderate to fresh offshore 
winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from 
Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S 
to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected 
during the period. Low pressure may form offshore of El Salvador 
and Guatemala Tue or Wed. Some gradual development of this system
is possible thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, 
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

High pressure well NW of the area extends a broad surface ridge 
southeastward to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure 
gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas from 10N to 25N and west 
of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail north 
of 25N west of 130W. Light to gentle winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in
SW swell are noted from S of 12N and W of 100W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink southward and 
weaken through Wed, as the anchoring high pressure center 
reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to fresh 
trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. Strong SW 
monsoonal winds will develop between 100W and 115W from tonight 
through Thu, and shift W-NW through Thu, generating seas to 9 ft.

$$
ERA