000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260920
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 91W and N of 04N, moving W 
near 10 kt. Associated convection described below prevails 
between 82W and 94W. 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 110W from 05N to 15N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection described below prevails 
between between 107W and 120W.

Another tropical wave is analyzed along 131W from 04N to 15N, 
and moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with 
this wave. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 12N84W to 10N91W to 13N104W
to low pres 1010 mb near 12N113.5W to 06N131W. The ITCZ continues
from 05.5N133W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted N of 03N to the coasts and E of 94W, N of 
07N to the coasts between 94W and 106W, and from 08N to 16N 
between 107W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 22N115W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle 
northerly winds prevail across north and central sections and 
are southerly elsewhere. Seas across the central Gulf are up to 
3 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring across the
nearshore waters from Puerto Angel to Acapulco winds, where seas
are 6 to 7 ft. Winds are generally light elsewhere with seas of  
5 to 6 ft prevailing across the remaining Mexican offshore 
waters. Hazy conditions are expected across the waters of 
southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will persist across 
offshore waters W of 110W through Mon night before weakening 
modestly as high pressure reorganizes farther NW of the area. A 
tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough
over western Mexico will continue to support pulsing fresh to 
strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through Wed. Pulsing
fresh southerly winds expected across the south and central Gulf
of California during overnight hours beginning today. A broad 
area of low pressure is expected to develop on Tue offshore of 
southern Mexico. As this occurs, expect fresh to locally strong
winds to shift westward across the nearshore waters of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions still appear 
generally favorable for gradual development of this broad system.
A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part 
of this week as the system moves generally west-northwestward, 
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. At this time, gale-
force winds are expected with this low beginning on Wed night 
through the end of the week across the offshore waters of West 
Central Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Low pressure may form
offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue or Wed move west-northwestward
and offshore of the Tehuantepec region Wed night and Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail 
across the offshore waters S of 09N. Across the offshore waters 
of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW 
winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central
America into early next week, except moderate to fresh offshore 
winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from 
Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S 
to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected 
during the period. Low pressure may form offshore of El Salvador 
and Guatemala Tue or Wed. Some gradual development of this system
is possible thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, 
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

High pressure well NW of the area extends a broad surface ridge 
southeastward to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure 
gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas from 10N to 24N and west 
of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail north
of 25N west of 125W. Light to gentle winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in
SW swell are noted from S of 10N and W of 100W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink very slightly 
southward and weaken through Wed, as the anchoring high pressure
center reorganize to the NW. This should maintain moderate to 
fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range.  
Strong SW monsoonal winds will develop between 100W and 115W 
from Mon night through Thu, and shift W-NW through Thu, 
generating seas to 9 ft.

$$
Stripling