000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260308 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 89W-90W and N of 04N, moving W near 10 kt. Associated convection described below prevails between 86W and 94W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 108W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection described below prevails between between 95W and 111W. Another tropical wave is analyzed along 130W from 04N to 15N, and moving W at 5 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 09N80W to 13N104W to low pres 1010 mb near 11.5N113.5W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 93W, N of 07N to the coasts between 94W and 105W, and from 07N to 15N between 108W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to near 22N112W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle northerly winds prevail across central sections and are variable elsewhere. Seas across the central Gulf are up to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. Hazy conditions are expected across the waters of southern Mexico. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of 110W through Mon night before weakening modestly. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over western Mexico will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this period. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except pulsing fresh southerly winds across the south and central Gulf of California during overnight hours beginning Mon. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop on Tue offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions still appear generally favorable for gradual development of this broad system. A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of this week as the system moves generally west- northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. At this time, gale-force winds are expected with this low beginning on Wed night through the end of the week across the offshore waters of West Central Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters S of 09N. Across the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central America into early next week, except moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Low pressure may form offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue or Wed. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the area. A 1024 mb high pressure center near 33N131W anchors a broad surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas from 10N to 24N and west of 115W. Gentle northerly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 125W. Light to gentle winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in SW swell are noted from S of 10N and W of 102W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward and weaken tonight and Mon, then reorganize to the NW by mid- week. This should maintain moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. New moderate-sized SW swell will move through the equatorial waters tonight and Sun before decaying Mon. Strong SW monsoonal winds will develop between 100W and 110W from Mon night through Thu, and shift W-NW through Thu, generating seas to 9 ft. $$ Stripling