000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the far eastern Pacific is along 86W, northward of 04N, moving W near 10 kt. A broad area of associated convection to the E of 94W is described below. A tropical wave is analyzed along 103W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. Another tropical wave is analyzed axis along 128W from 15N southward, and moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 13N102W to low pres near 11N108W 1011 mb to 11N121W to 08N129W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N130W to 06.5N136W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10.5N and E of 94.5W, from 07N to 10N between 96W and 103W, within 120 nm of the coasts between 92W and 105W, and from 06N to 14N between 106W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to near 20N112W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, while light to gentle southerly winds generally prevail. Seas across the central Gulf are up to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. Hazy conditions are expected across the waters of southern Mexico. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge centered well NW of the area will dominate the offshore waters W of 100W through Mon night before weakening modestly. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over western Mexico will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this period. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except pulsing fresh southerly winds across the central Gulf of California during overnight hours beginning Mon. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form Mon through Tue offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gale-force winds are expected with this low on Wed and Thu across the offshore waters of West Central Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail across the offshore waters S of 10N. Across the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell persist. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central America into early next week, except fresh to strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected during the period. Low pressure may form offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue or Wed. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly west- northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure center near 33N152W anchors a broad surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas from 12N to 25N and west of 115W. Gentle northerly winds and 5 to 6 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 120W. Light to gentle winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SW and SE swell are noted from S of 10N and W of 105W. Low pressure of 1011 mb has developed along the monsoon trough near 11N108W, and is helping to focus scattered thunderstorms between 105W and 114W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward and weaken tonight and Mon, then reorganize to the NW by mid- week. This should maintain moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. New moderate-sized SW swell will move through the equatorial waters tonight and Sun before decaying Mon and Tue. A zone of strong SW monsoonal winds will develop between 100W and 110W Tue night through Wed, and shift W-NW through Thu, generating seas of 8 to 9 ft. $$ Stripling