000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242129
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 101W from 16N southward, 
moving W 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-16N 
between 97W-105W. 

Another tropical wave extends its axis along 126W from 15N 
southward, and moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is 
noted with this wave at this time. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N133W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N133W to beyond 04N140W. Aside from the 
convection described in the section above with the tropical 
wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-16N 
between 78W-120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region to
near 17N106W, and is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Baja California waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate N 
winds are present across the central section, while light to gentle
southwest winds are noted over southern region. Seas across the 
central Gulf are up to 3 ft, and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the 
remaining Mexican offshore waters. Hazy conditions are expected
across the coastal sites across southern Mexico, however with  
minor restrictions to visibility. 

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge centered well NW of 
the area will dominate the offshore waters W of 100W through Mon
before weakening. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge 
and a meandering trough over western Mexico will support pulsing
fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this
period. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except 
pulsing fresh northerly winds across the central Gulf of 
California during overnight hours. Looking ahead, a broad area 
of low pressure is likely to form Mon-Tue offshore of southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form 
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves 
generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast 
of Mexico. Gale-force winds are expected with this low on Wed 
night/Thu across the offshore waters of West-Central Mexico. Refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail across the 
offshore waters of the Central America. For the offshore waters 
of Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S 
to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of Central
America into next week, except fresh to strong easterly winds 
off the Papagayo region tonight into Sun morning. For the waters
offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 
moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas in southerly 
swell are expected during the period. Looking ahead, a low 
pressure may form offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala on Wed. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it 
moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the 
southern coast of Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure center near 32N152W anchors a broad 
surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge axis is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas 
from 10N to 25N and west of 120W. Gentle northerly winds and 5 
to 6 ft seas prevail north of 25N west of 120W. Light to gentle 
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted from 02N to 10N W of 105W. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink slightly southward
and weaken through the weekend. This should maintain moderate to 
fresh trade winds S of 25N, and seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 
Moderate SW swell will enter the equatorial waters today before 
decaying by late Sun and Mon.

$$
ERA