112 AXPZ20 KNHC 221659 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W from El Salvador southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 87W and 98W. Another tropical wave is near 115W from 15N southward, and moving W around 5 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave. The tropical wave previously located near 108W has merged with this wave. A third tropical wave is near 133W from 16N, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua-Costa Rica border across 10N105W to 06N131W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 250 nm north and 300 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 98W. Similar conditions are found south of the trough from 03N to the Panama coast between the Colombia coast and 86W. ITCZ axis extends from 05N133W to beyond 140W at 05N. No significant convection is seen near the ITCZ. Updated Sections Below ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to channel moderate to locally fresh northerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas west of Baja California. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist in the Central American offshore waters. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites, however with only minor restrictions to visibility if any. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters west of Baja California into early next week. Tight pressure gradient between it and a meandering trough over northwest Mexico will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward during this period. Seas in this area will rise to near 8 ft by Mon due to NW swell. Mainly gentle with local moderate winds are expected prevail elsewhere, except pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds at the central Gulf of California during overnight hours. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred nm south of the southern Mexico coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression might form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of development from the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2 for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough, roughly from 09N/10N northward, except moderate NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Mainly moderate southerly winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 3-6 ft, highest S of 03N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the offshore waters of the central American nations into next week. For the waters offshore from Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected for the same period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well N of the area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are N of the monsoon trough and W of 117W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in northerly swell N of 22N and W of 117W. Winds and seas may be higher in and near any of the above mentioned convection. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough through the next several days, while sinking southward and weakening some. This will cause winds N of 23N/24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell events are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Forecaster Chan