000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W N of 04N to across Central America, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 82W and 90W. The wave is enhancing convection across parts of central America, especially over Costa Rica and Nicaragua. A tropical wave is along 105W from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 100W and 105W. A tropical wave is along 113W from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 06N to 14N between 110W and 118W. A tropical wave is along 128W from 04N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N98W to 12N120W to 06N130W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 10N between 90W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The ridge combined with a meandering trough over the Gulf of California or NW Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward with seas of 5-7 ft per altimeter data. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate a cyclonic circulation around Los Cabos, likely associated with a surface trough extending into the southern part of the Gulf of California, including Los Cabos area. Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the trough. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in southerly swell. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites, however with only minor restrictions to visibility if any. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the end of the week. The ridge combined with the aforementioned meandering trough will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through the forecast period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California mainly during the overnight hours. Building seas of up to 8 ft are expected offshore Baja California due to NW swell and the fresh to strong winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate NE to E winds in the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W with gentle NE winds in the Gulf of Fonseca. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-6 ft in S-SW swell, except 4-7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well N of the area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted under the influence of the ridge with seas generally in the 5-7 ft range, except 8 ft in NW to N swell N of 27N between 119W and 124W. An altimeter pass confirmed these sea heights. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds are observed, higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough through the next several days, while sinking southward and weakening some. This will cause winds N of 23N/24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell events are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ GR