000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W N of 04N to across Costa Rica and into the SW Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 80W and 85W. A tropical wave is along 103 from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 98W and 103W. A tropical wave is along 111W from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 08N between 106W and 119W. A tropical wave is along 127W from 03N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 136W from 05N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N110W to 08N140W. No ITCZ is analyzed E of 140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 10N E of 95W to the coast of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore waters of Baja California. The ridge combined with low pres troughing over the NW Mexico region is supporting fresh to locally strong winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except locally fresh in the central and northern Gulf of California. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and mainly 4-5 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf, and 2-5 ft in the central and southern Gulf. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites, however with only minor restrictions to visibility if any. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the offshore waters of Baja California through the end of the week. The ridge combined with low pres troughing over NW Mexico or Baja California will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through the forecast period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California mainly during the overnight hours. Seas of up to 8 ft will be offshore Baja California due to NW swell and the fresh to strong winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 88W with seas of 5-6 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-6 ft in S-SW swell, except 4-7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days. A developing low pres along the monsoon trough may bring gentle to moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia today through Thu. Slight to moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well N of the area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Moderate to fresh NE trades prevail N of the monsoon to about 15N and W of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft across the open waters, highest N of 24N in mixed northerly swell. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough through the next several days, while sinking southward. This will cause winds N of 23N/24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell sets are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ GR