000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W/82W N of 03N. The waves extends from the SW Caribbean across western Panama into the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 03N-06N between 77W-84W. A tropical wave is along 100W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 10- 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 05N-14N between 94W-104W. A tropical wave is along 109W from 03N to 16N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 07N-15N between 104W-115W. A tropical wave is along 124W/125W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 115W-125W. A tropical wave is along 133W/134W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo at 10.5N86W to 10N115W to 09N129W. The ITCZ extends from 07N137W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-10N between 85W-94W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 03N-06N between 138W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending from NW to SE across the offshore waters continues to dominate the offshore waters of Mexico. The ridge combined with low pres troughing over the NW Mexico region is supporting fresh to strong winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except locally fresh in the central Gulf of California. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and mainly 5 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Haze continues to be reported at the majority of coastal sites, however with only minor restrictions to visibility if any. For the forecast, ridging extending from the NW to SE will dominate the offshore waters of Mexico through the end of the week. The ridge combined with low pres troughing over NW Mexico or Baja California will support pulsing fresh to strong winds from Cabo San Lazaro northward through the forecast period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, locally fresh to strong in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and pulsing to moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California mainly during the overnight hours. Seas of up to 8 ft will be offshore Baja California due to NW swell and the fresh to strong winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pres is likely to form this weekend a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of SW Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system early next week while it moves generally WNW parallel to the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 87W with seas of 5-6 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in S-SW swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, and 5-7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight. Elsewhere and otherwise gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the next several days. A developing low pres along the monsoon trough may bring gentle to moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia Wed through Thu. Slight to moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres centered well N of the area extends southward and dominates the open waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE trades prevail N of 20N, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft across the open waters, highest N of 25N in fresh N-NE swell. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough through the next several days, while sinking southward. This will cause winds N of 23N/24N and W of 125W to diminish slightly along with subsiding seas, with trades freshening S of there to the monsoon trough. No significant swell sets are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky