000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 79W N of 04N. The waves extends from the SW Caribbean across the Gulf of Panama into the EPAC region. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-06N between the coast of Colombia and the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 97W N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the wave axis from 05N to 15N between 94W and 98W. A tropical wave is along 107W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 100W and 114W. A tropical wave is along 122W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 120W and 125W. A tropical wave is along 131W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 12N115W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N133W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 07N between 80W and 85W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is from 04N-07N W of 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds with seas of 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds prevail with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light and variable winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through the week, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed. By Wed evening, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure inland Mexico will produce fresh to strong NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia for a few hours. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh at night over the N and central parts of the Gulf through Thu night. NW swell generated by gale force winds offshore California, will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight, building seas to 6-8 ft on Wed. On Wed, seas of 5-7 ft in mixed NW and S swell will dominate most of the waters W of Baja California. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 4-5 ft range due to S swell. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 87W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail N of 04N, with gentle to moderate southerly winds S of 04N, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in S swell. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected again in the Papagayo region tonight. Then, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast through Thu night. Winds across the remainder of Central American and Colombia offshore waters are forecast to remain light to gentle through early Wed while gentle to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. On Wed, a developing low pres along the monsoon trough may bring gentle to moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1032 mb located near 42N144W extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south supports moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to about 15N and west of 130W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted S of the monsoon trough between 95W and 130W with higher winds near thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. The surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters for the remainder of the work-week. The high pressure center will move southward while strengthening some by mid-week. As a result, moderate to fresh trades are expected across the west- central waters likely through Fri. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker. Seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through the week. $$ GR