000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181608 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 85W N of 02N into the Gulf of Honduras in the NW Caribbean. The wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is across the offshore waters of Costa Rica. A tropical wave axis extends along 92W from 02N to 14N, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 88W and 94W. A tropical wave axis is along 110W from 05N to 20N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A 1007 mb low pres is centered along the wave near 12N109W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 19N between 103W and 115W. A tropical wave axis is along 122W from 03N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 03N to 11N between 116W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1007 mb low pres near 12N109W to 09N118W. The ITCZ extends from 07N124W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 08N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 38N149W southeastward to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro with strong winds just W of Punta Eugenia. Winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico as well as along the Gulf of California are light to gentle. Gentle to moderate E winds are elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds west of Baja California Norte will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds this evening. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail and expand to the Baja California Sur offshore waters Mon night into Tue as a set of NW swell swell enters the region bringing seas of 7 to 8 ft to the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Both the NW swell and the winds to fresh speeds will continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters through Fri night, with periods of locally strong winds along the coast N of Cabo San Lazaro. Mainly light to gentle winds will persist in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle SE to S winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SE to S swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-5 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend E of 92W affecting Central America. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue in Papagayo through mid-week. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and equatorial Pacific waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 38N149W southeastward to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure difference between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing north of 25N and west of 130W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing south S of the monsoon and ITCZ between 94W and 130W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. To the south, an 8-9 ft SW swell is propagating N across the waters S of the Equator between 102W and 120W. The fresh NE winds will prevail through this afternoon north of 25N and west of 130W. Some slow tropical development is possible with the low pres near 12N109W during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the middle of the week. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh from 06N to 22N, west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The 8-9 ft SW swell will propagate N across the southern waters through this afternoon. Elsewhere, seas should remain in the 5-7 ft range through Tue. $$ Ramos