000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 89W from 03N to 13N, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 85W and 91W. A tropical wave is along 106W from 05N-16N, moving west around 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave where it intersects the monsoon trough near 11N106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 17N between 97W and 111W. A tropical wave is along 120W from 08N-17N, moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1008 mb low pres near 11N106W to 09N129W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 00N to 08N E of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 132W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging extends from a 1030 mb high pressure at 38N143W southeastward to Baja California Norte. The gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Colima, Mexico as well as along the Gulf of California are light to gentle. Gentle to moderate E to SE are elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell. Otherwise, seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft in NW swell along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. For the forecast, the trough over the Gulf of California along with the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula will support fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California through today. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through Mon. NW to N winds will increase to fresh to strong west of Baja California again Mon night through the middle of next week, as high pressure restrengthens just west of the area. NW to N swell will slightly increase off Baja California Norte by the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue in the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SE to S swell. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-5 ft. Heavy showers and thunderstorms extend offshore the W coast of Colombia to 83W. For the forecast, fresh winds over the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong for tonight with seas building to 7 to 8 ft. Winds will diminish by Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and equatorial Pacific waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends from a 1031 mb high pressure at 38N143W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades north of 07.5N west of 126W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted in ASCAT satellite data south of 02S between 110W and 116W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. A 1008 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 11N105W is producing abundant shower and thunderstorm activity, mentioned in the tropical waves section above. Seas are 7-9 ft in N swell north of 26N between 126W-140W. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell south of 02N between 100W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft. The ridge should build north of our area, and fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected through tonight north of 26N and west of 131W, with seas 8-10 ft. Some slow tropical development is possible with the low pres near 11N105W during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the middle portion of next week. Trade winds will remain moderate to fresh from 08N to 18N, west of 130W. Elsewhere across the High Seas, winds should remain moderate or weaker. The exception is south of 02N between 100W-120W, where moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast Sun through Mon night. An 8-9 ft S swell will propagate N across the southern waters today through Sun, reaching from 03.4S to 04N, between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, seas should remain 5-7 ft through Tue. $$ Ramos