000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152047 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from 14N in the southwest Caribbean through western Panama and into the east Pacific to 04N. The tropical wave is drifting slowly W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N E of 89W, including offshore of Costa Rica and near the coast of Colombia. A robust tropical wave is along 96W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 92W and 106W. A tropical wave is along 115W from 03N to 14N, drifting slowly W. A 1006 mb low pressure center is noted near where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough at 10N114W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 13N between 108W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N99W to 1006 mb low pres near 10N113W to 08N129W. The ITCZ continues from 08N129W to 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 119W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh winds NW winds are ongoing W of Baja California due to the the pressure gradient between high pressure well W of the area and low pressure centered over SW Arizona. Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere off Mexico with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibility in some areas near the coast from Guerrero eastward to the Guatemala border. For the forecast, a trough deepen slightly over the lower Colorado River Valley and northern Gulf of California into Fri, while a weak ridge persists between Los Cabos and the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern will support fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California through late Fri, with fresh SW winds pulsing over the northern Gulf of California tonight. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the tropical wave section above for information on convection associated with a tropical wave crossing from the Caribbean into the eastern Pacific. Fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region as well as offshore El Salvador and Guatemala, partially in association with a tropical wave, described in the Tropical Waves section above. To the south of 02N, mainly gentle S winds are present, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands in S swell. Seas are generally 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region and downwind to 89W through Sat night, with moderate winds also possible off El Salvador. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle variable winds will prevail across the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to locally moderate S winds will continue west of Ecuador. Southerly swell of 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail into Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1006 mb center of low pressure, mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, located near 10N112W, is inducing some moderate winds and scattered moderate convection in its vicinity. This low is expected to drift NW over the next couple of days before devolving into a surface trough this weekend. There is a low chance of slow tropical development until this weekend, when conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Southerly swell of up to 8 ft is extending north to around the equator. A surface ridge extends from 1031 high pressure centered well north of the area southeastward across the subtropical waters to near 17N115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds N of the ITCZ and west of 125W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed SE and N swell. Mainly gentle to locally moderate northerly winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough while gentle to locally moderate SE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are south of these boundaries in southerly swell. For the forecast, an area of low pressure may form this weekend in association with the tropical wave currently analyzed along 96W, and described in the Tropical Waves section above. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this low as it moves WNW at 10 kt several hundred miles S of the southern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds and building seas can be expected tonight, north of 25N and west of 130W between high pressure northwest of the area and a persistent trough extending southwestward off southern California. Expect the NE winds in this area to increase to fresh to strong for Fri night into Sat. Northerly swell of 8-11 ft will also affect these waters N of 25N and west of 125W tonight through Sun. Over the remainder of the waters, little change in the pattern or impacts is expected into early next week, except for slightly higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 125W. $$ KONARIK