000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151544
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from 14N in the
southwest Caribbean through western Panama and into the east
Pacific to 05N. The tropical wave is moving W at 5 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N 
between 77W and 87W, including offshore of Costa Rica and near 
the coast of Colombia.

A tropical wave is along 94W from 04N to 12N, moving west at 10 
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 02N to 13N between 88W and 106W.

A tropical wave is along 114W from 03N to 13N, moving west at 5
kt. A 1006 mb low pressure center has developed near where this
wave is interacting with the monsoon trough at 10N113W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 14N 
between 106W and 114W.

The tropical wave previously along 126W has dissipated. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N99W to 1006 mb low
pres near 10N112W to 08N124W to 08N132W. The ITCZ continues from
08N132W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated 
with the tropical waves scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 08N between 118W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh winds NW winds are ongoing W of Baja California, mainly S
of El Rosario, due to the the pressure gradient between high
pressure well W of the area and low pressure over SW Arizona.
Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate gap winds are
diminishing in the Gulf of California, and seas have decayed to 
2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere off Mexico, to
the east of 109W, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. Convection
previously offshore southern Mexico has dissipated this morning. 
Smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing 
visibility in some areas near the coast from Guerrero eastward 
to the Guatemala border.

For the forecast, a trough will deepen slightly over the lower 
Colorado River Valley and northern Gulf of California through 
Fri, while a weak ridge persists between Los Cabos and the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern will support a continuation 
of fresh NW winds west of Baja California through late Fri, with 
fresh SW winds pulsing over the northern Gulf of California 
tonight. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See the tropical wave section above for information on convection
associated with a tropical wave crossing from the Caribbean into
the eastern Pacific. 

Strong winds in the Papagayo region are decreasing, as are
associated fresh winds offshore Central America. To the south of
02N, gentle to moderate S winds are present, including the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 6 to 8
ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands in S swell. Seas 
are 4-6 ft offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica in S swell.
Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region and downwind to 89W, mainly at night, through Sat
night, with moderate winds also possible off El Salvador. 
Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle variable winds will prevail 
across the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S 
winds will continue west of Ecuador. Southerly swell of 6 to 8 ft
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands should gradually 
subside to 5 to 6 ft by Fri.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are occurring on the W side of a
1006 mb low pressure centered near 10N111W. Seas in this area are
5 to 7 ft. Farther south, southerly swell is still reaching 8 ft
as far north as the equator.

To the N and W, a ridge extends from 1031 high pressure centered
well north of the area southeastward across the subtropical 
waters to near 17N115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ is 
supporting a belt of fresh NE winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west
of 125W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed SE and N swell. 
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from the ITCZ to 20N and 
west of 115W. The ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds 
north of 25N and west of 130W, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas. 
Mainly gentle northerly winds are elsewhere north of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough while gentle to moderate SE winds with seas 5
to 7 ft are south of these boundaries in southerly swell.

For the forecast, the low pressure along the monsoon trough,
mentioned above, may support fresh to locally strong winds, 
rough seas and thunderstorms within 90 nm of the center through 
the next couple of days before the low gradually weakens. There 
is a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours.
See hurricanes.gov for more information. 

Elsewhere, fresh NE winds and building seas can be expected 
today, north of 25N and west of 130W between high pressure 
northwest of the area and a persistent trough extending 
southwestward off southern California. Expect the NE winds in
this area to increase to fresh to strong for Fri night into Sat.
Northerly swell of 8-10 ft will also affect these waters N of 
25N and west of 125W Fri into Sun. Elsewhere, little change in 
the pattern or impacts is expected through the weekend, except 
for slightly higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 
125W. 

$$
KONARIK