000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130854
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 82W north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is evident along the wave axis from
06N to 08N.

A tropical wave is along 100W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to
12N between 97W and 101W. 

A weakening tropical wave is analyzed along 116W from 03N to 
12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
evident in the vicinity of the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 08N125W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from 
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is evident in the Gulf of Panama and within 
60 nm of the coast from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh winds
funneling along the coast of Baja California Sur, between a
surface ridge west of the area and higher terrain inland. An
altimeter satellite pass indicated 5 to 6 ft combined seas
farther offshore, although wave heights to 7 ft are likely closer
to the coastline where the winds are stronger. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for slight
seas over the Gulf of California. A cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is active over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

For the forecast, the ridge will persist between Baja California and the
Revillagigedo Islands through Sat. The ridge along with 
developing low pressure across the Gulf of California and western
Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient to support moderate to
fresh nW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters tonight 
through Sat. Moderate to fresh NW winds will also develop along 
the southern Gulf of California through tonight. Gentle winds 
will persist elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds prevail over the offshore forecast 
waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to moderate 
SE to S winds are mainly south of 02N, including the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in
SW swell across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters
and and 5 to 8 ft between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will remain in place 
across the region supporting mainly light to gentle variable 
winds across the Central America offshore waters, except for 
developing moderate to fresh NE gap winds in the region of 
Papagayo tonight through Thu morning. Moderate, long-period SW 
swell will persist mainly south of 10N building seas to 7 or 8 ft
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through mid week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered northwest of the 
across the subtropical waters to near Baja California Sur. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures 
associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting a belt of 
moderate to fresh NE winds from 08N to 20N west of 120W where 
seas in the 7 to 8 ft range in mixed SE and NW swell. The 
interaction of the ridge and a trough extending southwest off 
southern California is supporting moderate NE to E winds north of
20N and west of 130W, with 6 to 7 ft combined seas. Light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough while gentle to moderate SE winds with seas 6 to 8 ft are 
S of these boundaries in southerly swell.

For the forecast, little change in the pattern or impacts is
expected on winds and seas through mid-week, except for slightly
higher trade wind flow north of 08N and west of 130W as high 
pressure gradually builds north of the area. 

$$
Christensen