000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110859 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis from 02N to 04N. A tropical wave is analyzed near 103W north of 04N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N100W to 08N110W. The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 11N between 93W and 101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed near-gale force SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California. These winds are the result of a tightening pressure gradient related to a deep layer offshore to the west lowering pressures across the southern Colorado River valley and northern Gulf of California. Farther south, the same scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh winds are funneling along the coast of Baja California Sur, between the inland terrain and a ridge of high pressure extending along roughly 24N. The pass also showed fresh to strong NW winds just off the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force SW gap winds pulsing this morning over the northern portion of the Gulf of California will diminish later today. Farther south, a ridge will persist between Baja California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands through mid- week, supporting fresh winds along the coast of Baja California Sur mainly at night, and fresh to occasionally strong winds off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data over the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen mainly south of 05N, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft in SW swell across the region based on altimeter data. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the region supporting gentle to moderate winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long- period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next week, building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Mon. Enhanced moisture across the region will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms off southern Central America and Colombia through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 30N127W, with a trough extending to the southwest to near 26N130W. High pressure building west of the low is supporting fresh winds north of 20N and west of 130W. The low and trough have temporarily disrupted the subtropical ridge over the area, allowing trade wind flow farther south to diminish slightly. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed mostly moderate trade wind flow from 08N to 15N west of 120W. A concurrent altimeter pass showed combined seas are still 6 to 8 ft. Farther south, long-period southerly swell out of the southern hemisphere is starting to move north of 03.4N. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure will continue to move eastward across the waters north of 20N through this morning, and will weaken into a trough as it approaches into Baja California later today. High pressure following the low will support fresh trade winds will persist with 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropics west of 120W. $$ Christensen