693 
AXPZ20 KNHC 110404
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 102W north of 04N, moving west 
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed on either side of the axis from 08N to 10N between 99W 
and 102W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N100W to 08N110W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to beyond 06N140W. Outside of 
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is evident within 60 nm of the ITCZ between
125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level low is centered off southern California 
near 34N122W, with an associated 1015 mb surface low near
31N125W. A weakening frontal boundary extends southwestward from
the surface low, and together they are moving eastward
approaching Baja California. This pattern is supporting SW gap 
winds to near-gale force over the northern Gulf of California. 
Latest reports from Bahia de Los Angeles indicate winds to 29 kt
with gusts to 38 kt. Farther south, fresh winds are funneling
along the coast of Baja California Sur, between the inland 
terrain and a ridge of high pressure extending along roughly 24N.
Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force SW gap winds will 
pulse tonight over the northern portion of the Gulf of 
California, with seas building to 8 ft. These winds and seas are 
ahead of a weakening cold front approaching the area from the 
west. Farther south, a ridge will persist between Baja California
Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands through mid- week, supporting 
fresh winds along the coast of Baja California Sur mainly at 
night, and fresh to occasionally strong winds off Cabo San Lucas.
Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data over 
the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia
while gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen mainly south 
of 05N, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft in SW swell across the region based on 
altimeter data.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will remain in 
place across the region supporting gentle to moderate winds over 
the offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long- 
period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next 
week, building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands by Mon. Enhanced moisture across the region 
will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms off 
southern Central America and Colombia through the next several 
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating front extends from 1015 mb low pressure near
31N125W to 25N140W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 
4 to 7 ft follow the front. The remainder of the waters north of
15N and west of 110W are under the influence of a ridge. Mainly 
light to gentle winds are ahead of the front to about 20N with 
gentle to moderate NE winds S of 20N, with the exception of 
moderate to fresh trades from 08N to 12N W of 130W due to the 
pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Earlier altimeter 
satellite data from 21 UTC showed 6 to 8 ft combined seas within 
these winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ between 95W and 140W with seas of 6-8 ft. 

For the forecast, the low pressure will continue to move 
eastward across the waters north of 20N through tonight, and 
dissipate as it moves into Baja California on Sun. Moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front, with seas 
building to 6 to 8 ft. High pressure building in the wake of the
front may allow for fresh trade wind flow and slightly higher 
seas from 08N to 12N west fo 130W through the next few days. The 
high pressure is forecast to strenghten some by early next week. 

$$
Christensen