000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed near 100W north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on either side of the axis from 06N to 11N between 96W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N95W to 06N113W. The ITCZ continues from 06N113W to 06N130W to beyond 05N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 13N E of 90W to the coast of Colombia, and from 06N to 09N between 93W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists from 05N to 10N W of 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle to moderate NW winds along the coast Baja California N of Punta Eugenia, and mainly moderate NW winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. This winds are the result of the pressure gradient between a ridge that dominates the offshore waters of Baja California and lower pressure inland Mexico. Seas are 3-5 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-6 ft S of Cabo San Lazaro, and all the way S to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light and variable winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4-5 ft primarily in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds dominate the northern Gulf of California while light and variable winds are noted elsewhere with slight seas. For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the offshore waters of Baja California through mid-week, supporting fresh winds along the coast of Baja California Sur mainly at night, and fresh to occasionally strong winds off Cabo San Lucas. Expect strong to near-gale force SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight ahead of a trough and a weakening cold front moving eastward toward Baja California Norte. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data over the offshore forecast waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen mainly south of 05N, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft in SW swell across the region based on altimeter data. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the region supporting gentle to moderate winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long- period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next week, building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Tue. Enhanced moisture across the region will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms off southern Central America and Colombia through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving across the northern forecast waters, and extends from 30N127W to 25N140W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft follow the front. The remainder of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W are under the influence of a ridge. Mainly light to gentle winds are ahead of the front to about 20N with gentle to moderate NE winds S of 20N, with the exception of moderate to fresh trades from 08N to 12N W of 130W due to the pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Recent altimeter satellite data show 6-8 ft combined seas within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 95W and 140W with seas of 6-8 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward across the waters north of 20N through tonight, and dissipate as it moves into Baja California on Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front, with seas building to 6-8 ft. High pressure building in the wake of the front may allow for fresh trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 12N west fo 130W through the next few days. The high pressure is forecast to strenghten some by early next week. $$ GR