000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101533
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 85W north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt.
A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of
the wave axis covering the waters from 10N to 13N E of 91W to 
the coast of Nicaragua. 

A tropical wave is analyzed near 99W north of 04N, moving west 
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted on the E side of the wave axis from 04N to 11N between 91W
and 99W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 07N107W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N107W to 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Outside of
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is evident N of 03N E of 80W to the coast of
Colombia, and from 05N to 10N between 123W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds persist along the coast Baja California 
Sur between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro, between a ridge
extending from west of the area southwestward between Los Cabos
and the Revillagigedo Islands, and a trough approaching Baja
California Norte. Combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft off Baja
California Sur. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
persist elsewhere over open waters. Light and variable winds and
slight seas are noted over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a ridge will persist from west off Baja 
California to south of Los Cabos through early next week, 
supporting fresh winds along the coast of Baja California Sur 
mainly at night, and fresh to occasionally strong winds off Cabo 
San Lucas. Expect strong to near-gale force SW gap winds over the
northern Gulf of California tonight ahead of a trough and a 
weakening cold front moving eastward toward Baja California 
Norte. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in 
SW swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central 
America, Colombia and Ecuador south of 10N, except 6 to 7 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light and variable 
winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident 
north of 10N. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters
will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the offshore waters
through the forecast period. Moderate, long-period SW swell will
persist mainly south of 10N into early next week, building seas 
to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Tue. 
Enhanced moisture across the region will favor the development of
showers and thunderstorms off southern Central America and 
Colombia through the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 
110W. This pattern is supporting a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow across the area. Moderate to locally fresh 
trades are observed from 08N-14N and W of 120W due to the 
pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Recent altimeter
satellite data show 6 to 8 ft combined seas within these winds. 
Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas 
generally 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell. A cold front extending from
30N129W to 25N140W continues to move slowly eastward over the 
discussion waters north of 25N and west of 125W.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward 
across the waters north of 20N through late today, and dissipate
as it moves into Baja California on Sun. Moderate to fresh N to 
NE winds are expected behind the front, with seas building to 6-8
ft. High pressure building in the wake of the front may allow 
for fresh trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 
13N west fo 130W through late today. The high pressure is forecast
to strenghten some by early next week. 

$$
GR