112 AXPZ20 KNHC 090958 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is analyzed near 89W north of 02N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted off Costa Rica from 02N to 10N between 87W and 93W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N99W to 06N111W. The ITCZ continues from 06N111W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 10N and E of 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge continues to dominates the waters W of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are over the northern section of the Gulf of California along with seas of 2-3 ft. Elsewhere across the Gulf, light and variable winds are noted with seas of 1-2 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle W-NW winds and seas of 4-6 ft in S to SW long-period swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur through early next week. A weakening cold front moving into the peninsula Sat into Sun will support strong to near-gale force SW gap winds over the Gulf of California Sat night. Gentle breezes will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America, Colombia and Ecuador offshore forecast waters south of 10N. Light and variable winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident north of 10N. Higher winds are noted per scatterometer data near the convective activity, particularly across the offshore waters of Colombia. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long-period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next week, building to 8 ft off Ecuador by Tue. Enhanced moisture across the region will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms off southern Central America and Colombia through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 27N140W dominates the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern is supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the area. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed from 08N-18N and W of 115W due to the pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Earlier altimeter data showed combined seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 24N between 128W and 135W, likely with northerly swell. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 20N Fri through late Sat, and dissipate as it moves into Baja California. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front with seas building to 6-8 ft. High pressure building in the wake of the front may allow for fresh trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 15N west fo 130W through late Sat. $$ AReinhart/EC