000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090401
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is analyzed near 86W north of 04N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted off Costa
Rica from 07N to 09N betweewn 82W and 86W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N95W to 07N115W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N115W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 06N to 08N between 98W and 10W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge continues to dominates the waters W of Baja California 
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas are 4-6 ft in
mixed S and NW swell. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are over 
the northern section of the Gulf of California along with seas of
2-3 ft. Elsewhere across the Gulf, light and variable winds are 
noted with seas of 1-2 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to 
the Gulf. Light to gentle W-NW winds and seas of 4-6 ft in S to 
SW long-period swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will 
support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur 
through early next week. A weakening cold front moving into the 
peninsula Sat into Sun will support strong to near-gale force SW 
gap winds over the Gulf of California Sat night. Gentle breezes 
will persist elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW 
swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America, 
Colombia and Ecuador south of 10N. Light and variable winds and 
combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident north of 10N. 
Higher winds are noted per scatterometer data near the convective
activity, particularly across the offshore waters of Colombia.

For the forecast,a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long-
period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next 
week. Enhanced moisture across the region will favor the 
development of showers and thunderstorms off southern Central 
America and Colombia through the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 28N138W dominates
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern 
is supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the
area. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed from 10N-14N
between 125W and 131W due to the pressure gradient between the
southern periphery of the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ. Recent altimeter data showed combined seas
of 8 to 9 ft north of 24N between 128W and 135W, likely with 
northerly swell. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move eastward across the
waters north of 20N Fri through late Sat, and dissipate as it 
moves into Baja California. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are
expected behind the front with seas building to 6-8 ft. High 
pressure building in the wake of the front may allow for fresh 
trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 15N west fo 
130W through late Sat. 

$$
Christensen