000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W 
westward across northern Costa Rica to 12N93W to 10N110W to 
07N130W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 05N137W to beyond 
05N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is 
from 03N to 06N E of 80W. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is noted from the Equator to 15N between 85W and 100W,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Similar convective activity 
is also seen from 05N to 11N between 100W and 135W, and within 
150 NM SE quadrant of low center. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge dominates the waters of Baja California. Its associated 
gradient is allowing for mostly moderate NW winds to the west of 
Baja California Sur, where seas are 6-7 ft in mixed S and NW 
swell. Offshore Baja California Norte, mainly gentle W to NW winds
are present along with seas of 5-8 ft in primarily NW swell. 
Moderate to fresh S winds are in the northern Gulf of California,
where seas have built to 3-5 ft. Gentle winds are in the southern
and central Gulf of California, with 1-2 ft seas, except at the 
entrance to the Gulf, where seas are 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate 
NW winds are west of Cabo Corrientes, with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere off southern and southwestern Mexico, 
from Manzanillo eastward to the Guatemala border, but seas are 
6-8 ft in this area due to southerly swell. 

For the forecast, the ridge west of the area will build slightly
eastward today. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop in 
the northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to locally strong 
NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the 
forecast period. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the SW 
Mexican offshore waters will change little through the period. 
Offshore southern and southwestern Mexico, long-period S swell 
will subside by tonight. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds 
may return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to NW winds prevail across the offshore 
forecast waters of Central America and Colombia while gentle to 
locally moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. Long-period S to SW swell is moving 
through the entire area producing seas of 6-9 ft.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Long-period cross 
equatorial S to SW swell moving through the region, including 
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will begin 
to slowly subside today. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered well N of 
the area near 40N138W, dominates the forecast waters N of 15N 
and W of 110W, generating a moderate anticyclonic flow. Moderate
to fresh NE to E trade winds are N of the aforementioned low 
that is along the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due 
to a mix of N and S swell with a few exceptions. Seas are 8 to 10
ft in N swell N of 27N between 120W and 135W. S to SW swell with
seas of 8 to 9 ft dominate the waters E of 85W, including the 
entrance to the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, and
also N of 03N between 90W and 105W.
 
For the forecast, the ridge will begin to shift eastward today 
in response to a cold front that is expected to approach the 
northwest corner of the area late in the week. The low along the 
monsoon trough will weaken to a trough as it crosses 140W this 
afternoon. Long-period cross equatorial S to SW swell from the 
Southern Hemisphere will decay today. The northerly swell over 
the N waters will continue to propagate S spreading seas of 8-10
ft N OF 26N between 122W and 135W by this evening. This swell
event will subside by late Wed. The aforementioned cold front is
forecast to enter the NW corner of the forecast area by late 
Fri, reaching from near 30N127W to 25N140W by late on Sat. Fresh 
N to NE winds are expected behind it.

$$
GR