000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042123
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
12N95W to 1011 mb low pres located near 07.5N121W to a second 
1012 mb low pres situated near 07N134W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N to 
09N E of 90 to the coast of Colombia, from 05N to 10N between 
93W and 106W, and from 05N to 10N between 116W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception 
of fresh NW winds near Cabo San Lucas based on recent scatterometer
data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell across this 
area. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and variable 
with seas in the 1 to 2 ft range, expect 3 to 5 ft near the 
entrance to the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail
across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 5 
to 7 ft primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control the weather 
pattern across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula 
through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. 
As a result, expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Punta Eugenia. In addition, fresh NW winds are expected near 
Cabo San Lucas at night through the forecast period. A developing
low pressure over the northern Gulf of California will support 
fresh to locally strong S to SW winds at night Mon and Tue with 
seas building to 7 or 8 ft on Mon night. Gentle to moderate NW 
winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will diminish to 
light to gentle speeds on Mon with building seas of 7 to 8 ft in 
SW swell late on Mon and Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen 
across the Central America offshore waters while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and seas in the 7 to 9 ft in SW swell 
are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate to
locally fresh S winds prevail across the offshore waters of 
Colombia with seas of 5 to 8 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, light to
gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft prevail with the exception of 3 to 5 
ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Shower and thunderstorms are
affecting most of Panama and Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds will 
prevail through mid-week. Cross equatorial SW swell, with seas of
8 to 9 ft, will continue to propagate across the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, reaching the offshore waters 
of West Panama by tonight with seas building there to 8 ft. This
swell event will gradually subside Mon night into Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure located near 44N136W,
dominates mainly the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W generating
a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Winds increase some to 
moderate to fresh speeds on the northern semicircle of the 
aforementioned low pressure centers located along the monsoon. 
Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open waters in mixed 
swell, with the exception of 7 to 9 ft S of 07N between 94W and 
117W due to a southerly swell event. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are likely
around the low pressure centered near 07.5N121W.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through at least 
mid-week. The westernmost low pressure along the monsoon trough
will open-up into a trough while approaching 140W in about 36-48
hours. The low pressure located near 07.5N121W will drift northward
over the next 2 or 3 days. Long period S to SW swell from the 
Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across most of the
waters S of 10N between 92W and 110W by tonight. Seas generated 
by strong northerly winds just W of the State of California will 
push S of 30N Mon through Tue, with seas 8 to 10 ft affecting 
roughly the waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W.

$$
GR