000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032116
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
13N92W to 1011 mb low pres near 07N120W to a second low pres of
1010 mb located near 07N133W. The ITCZ continues from 07N133W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 01N to 09N between 85W and 98W. Similar convective activity 
is noted from 06N to 09N between 110W and 115W, within 120 nm NW
quadrant of low near 07N120W, and from 06N to 10N W of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception 
of moderate to fresh NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta 
Eugenia based on recent scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
in NW to N swell across this area. In the Gulf of California, 
winds are light and variable with seas in the 1 to 2 ft range, 
expect 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Gentle to moderate
NW winds prevail across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters,
with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to control the weather pattern
across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through at least
Mon with little change in winds and seas. As a result, expect 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception of moderate 
to fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. A 
developing low pressure over the northern Gulf of California will
support fresh to locally strong S to SW winds at night Mon 
through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected near Cabo San 
Lucas at night through the forecast period. Moderate NW winds 
across the SW Mexican offshore waters will diminish to light to 
gentle speeds on Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds are across the Central America
offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in SW swell across the region, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds will 
prevail through mid-week. Building seas of 8 to 9 ft in SW swell
will propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands tonight into Sun, reaching the offshore waters 
of W Panama and Costa Rica on Mon. This swell event will gradually
subside Mon night into Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure N of the area anchored by a 1029 mb high near 
41N140W extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N W of
110W generating a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. An area 
of moderate to fresh NE winds is along the southern periphery of
the ridge W of 125W due to the pressure gradient between the
ridge and a weak low pressure along the ITCZ near 07N133W. Seas 
are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open waters in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through mid-week
while the low pressure along the ITCZ will drift westward, crossing
140W by Mon night into Tue. Long period S to SW swell from the 
Southern Hemisphere will cross the Equator tonight, building seas
to 8 to 9 ft. This swell event will propagate across most of the
waters S of 07N between 92W and 118W by Sun afternoon, reaching 
10N by Sun night. Seas generated by strong northerly winds just W
of the State of California will push S of 30N Mon through Tue 
with seas 8 to 10 ft affecting roughly the waters N of 25N between
120W and 135W.

$$
GR