000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1940 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 10N85W to 11N99W to 07.5N119W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N119W to low pres near 08N126W 1010 mb to beyond 02.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 13N E of 95W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 95W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 105W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds prevail across the waters within 150 nm of the Baja California coast this afternoon, with gentle to moderate winds further to the W and beyond 120W. Across the Gulf of California, westerly gap winds have diminished to near 15 kt across several prominent gaps in each portion of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in S swell over the open waters off Mexico, except to 7 ft off of Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted across Gulf of California downwind of the gap winds, and 1-3 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf, except the entrance to the Gulf where seas of 4-5 ft are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of fresh winds from the evening through early morning hours across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula through Mon. Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will occur in the Gulf of California each night through early Fri. New N swell will move through the Baja offshore waters Thu night through early Sat, and then again Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters this afternoon. Mainly gentle onshore winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mostly cross equatorial SW swell. Active convection continues across the waters N of 02N and is expected to continue into Thu night. For the forecast, the monsoon trough will lift N of 10N and into Nicaragua and Honduras Fri through the weekend as broad low pressure develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected S of the trough through Sun. Moderate S to SW cross equatorial swell will dominate regional seas through Sat before large SW swell builds into the regional waters Sat night through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a 1030 mb Pacific high located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 38N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 19N and W of 120W. Fresh NE winds and seas to 8 ft prevail within 120 nm across the N semicircle of 1010 mb low pressure that is along the ITCZ near 08N126W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough and E of 112W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range from 6-8 ft S of 18N and 5-6 ft N of 18N. For the forecast, high pressure and a broad surface ridge will remain in place through early Fri, before weakening and shifting gradually eastward through the weekend. Winds will weaken very modestly across the trade wind belt over the weekend. A new pulse of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical Pacific on Sat and build through Sun, raising seas to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W and south of 10N. $$ Stripling