000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310852
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N83W to 11N100W to 06N127W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N127W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 12N E of 
104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N 
between 115W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail within 120 nm of the Baja 
California coast in the offshore waters, with gentle to moderate 
winds further to the W. For the Gulf of California, light winds 
prevail, except for some locally fresh SW winds in portions of 
the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in 
S swell over the open waters off Mexico, except to 7 ft off of 
Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the northern Gulf 
of California, and 1-2 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf, except the
entrance to the Gulf where seas of 4-5 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical 
Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a 
surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of 
fresh winds from the evening through early morning hours across 
the waters west of the Baja Peninsula. Fresh to strong S to SW 
gap winds will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California 
each night into Thu. Moderate seas will continue through the week
across the Mexico offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and Galapagos 
Islands offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mostly cross equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to moderate 
SW monsoon winds are expected in the South American offshore 
zones. Moderate S to SW cross equatorial swell will dominate 
regional seas through Sat before large SW swell gradually builds 
into the area waters Sat night into the start of next week. 


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a
1033 mb Pacific high located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 40N.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N and W of 120W. Gentle 
to moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough and 
E of 115W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 
from 5-7 ft S of 15N and 4-6 ft N of 15N.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through Fri. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist across 
the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W, and
some fresh E winds are expected just N of the ITCZ. A new pulse 
of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical
Pacific on Sat. 

$$
KONARIK