000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302112
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 11.5N95W to 07.5N128W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07.5N128W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N E of 
108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
00.5N to 02N between 86W and 89W, and from 06.5N to 10N between 
115W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Mainly moderate northwesterly winds prevail across the Baja
waters S of Punta Eugenia this afternoon, except for fresh winds
within 120 nm of the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Gentle northwest
winds prevail across the Baja Norte waters. Light and variable 
winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California, except for 
moderate S to SW winds across northern portions. Gentle to 
moderate NW to W winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters 
off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in S swell over the open waters 
off Mexico, except to 7 ft off of Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 2-4 ft
are noted over the northern Gulf of California, and 1-2 ft are 
elsewhere over the Gulf, except the entrance to the Gulf where 
seas of 4-5 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between subtropical 
Pacific high pressure centered N of the Hawaiian Islands and a 
surface trough in the Gulf of California will support pulses of 
fresh winds from the evening through early morning hours west of
the Baja Peninsula. Fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will 
briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California each night 
through Thu. Seas of 5-6 ft in mixed swell will persist across 
the Mexico offshore waters through Thu, then build to 6-7 ft Fri
and Sat in mixed NW and SW swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate S winds prevail in the Ecuador and 
Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mostly cross
equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, little change is anticipated through Sat before 
large SW swell gradually builds into the area waters Sat night 
through Sun night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters, centered on a
1033 mb Pacific high located N of the Hawaiian Islands near 40N.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N and W of 120W. 
Gentle to moderate moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the 
monsoon trough and E of 115W. Light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere. Seas range from 5-8 ft S of 15N and 4-6 ft N of 15N.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through Fri. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist across 
the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W, and
some fresh E winds are expected just N of the ITCZ. A new pulse 
of large cross equatorial SW swell will reach the eastern tropical
Pacific on Sat. 

$$
Stripling