000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290253
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 09N108W to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from 07N129W to 
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 03N to 13N between 80W and 117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula. Seas are 4 to
6 ft in S swell. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of 
California with slight seas. Light to gentle winds also prevail 
across the offshore waters of the southern Mexico coast with 
moderate seas. Showers and thunderstorms offshore southern Mexico
have diminished this evening. Smoke from agricultural fires may
be impacting waters offshore Chiapas. 

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California 
will persist into mid-week. Winds are expected to pulse to fresh 
during the overnight and early morning hours west of the Baja 
Peninsula during this time. Fresh to strong S to SW gap winds 
will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California each night 
through the forecast period. Seas will become 4-6 ft across the 
offshore waters today across most of the Mexico offshore waters 
and continue through most of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light 
to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, southerly light to gentle
winds are noted. Gentle to locally moderate S winds prevail in 
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas have 
began to subside across the waters and now range 7-9 ft in 
southerly swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Scattered 
thunderstorms noted throughout the waters. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Central America may be restricting
visibility N of Nicaragua. 

For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will continue to subside
throughout the area and drop below 8 ft tonight. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to locally moderate SW monsoon winds are expected in the South 
American offshore zones. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1033 mb located northwest of the area near 
39N157W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated 
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through mid-week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W. Long- period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Pacific
will gradually subside below 8 ft tonight. A new set of long- 
period S to SW swell will approach the eastern tropical Pacific
Wed. 

$$
KONARIK