000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260255
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N79W to 08N91W to 08N110W
to 08N121W. It then transition to the ITCZ and continues to
06N132W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between
84W and 86W, 88W and 90W and 109W and 118W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between
113W and 119W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Volcanic ash from recent eruptions of Popocatepetl in Mexico may
be leading to some ashfall and reduced visibility offshore
Oaxaca. In addition, smoke and haze from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico may be restricting visibility offshore Mexico S
of Cabo Corrientes. Locally fresh NW winds are ongoing nearshore
Cabo Lazaro and Cabo Corrientes, with locally fresh S winds in
the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Mexico, with
1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
waters of Baja California through the weekend supporting mainly 
moderate NW to N winds. Locally fresh winds are expected Fri 
night into Sat. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds are 
expected during the overnight and early morning hours near Cabo 
San Lucas through early next week. Moderate, with locally fresh 
to strong S to SW gap winds will occur in the northern Gulf of 
California each night through the forecast period. Fresh NW 
winds are expected offshore Jalisco and Colima through Fri. Fresh
to strong northerly gap winds are forecast for the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Fri through Sat. These winds will diminish in the 
afternoon on both days. Reduced visibility due to haze from 
agricultural fires will persist for the offshore waters of 
central and southern Mexico through Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

N of the monsoon trough, light winds prevail offshore N of Costa
Rica, with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
in southerly swell, with some 8 ft seas now spreading northward,
reaching near the Equator. Smoke from agricultural fires may be
restricting visibility offshore Guatemala and El Salvador.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north 
of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central
American offshore waters north of Costa Rica through the 
upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal 
winds are forecast for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama,
Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. Afterward, monsoonal winds
will become mainly gentle. Seas building to 7 to 11 ft in long-
period S to SW will propagate across the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night before slowly 
subsiding. Seas of 8 ft associated with this swell event will 
reach the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica Fri 
night into Sat. Reduced visibility due to haze from agricultural 
fires will persist across northern central American through at 
least Fri night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb located well northwest of the area near
36N143W extends a ridge over the forecast region north of 10N 
and west of 110W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for
moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NE
swell.  Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ to the Equator. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region 
north of 10N and west of 110W through the weekend. Moderate to
locally fresh NE trade winds will persist across the southern 
periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Long-period S 
to SW swell will cross the Equator on Fri, and propagate 
northward reaching about 05N by Fri night and to near 10N east of
101W by Sat afternoon.

$$
KONARIK