000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250912
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from northern Colombia
near 10N74W to 09N90W to 08N111W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N111W to 07N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 78W and 84W, 
and 04N to 07N between 87W and 98W. Similar convective activity 
is seen over parts of the Gulf of Panama, from 05N to 10N 
between 110W and 120W, and from 03N to 07N between 128W and 
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds across the offshore waters of Baja California N of Punta 
Eugenia and moderate to locally fresh winds S of Punta Eugenia. 
Fresh winds are noted near Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4-6 ft in 
this area, with the exception of 6-7 ft across the outer forecast
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds and 2-4 ft seas are present in 
the northern part of the Gulf while mainly light to gentle winds 
are noted elsewhere with seas in the 1-3 ft range, except for 3- 
5 ft seas due to a S swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder
of the Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
waters of Baja California through the upcoming weekend supporting
gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds
are expected Fri night through Sat night. Pulsing fresh to locally
strong winds are expected during the overnight and early morning
hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. Moderate,
with locally fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will occur in the
northern Gulf of California each night through the forecast 
period. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a NW swell affecting the outer 
offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro will persist today. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 6-7 ft are 
expected offshore Jalisco and Colima through Fri. Reduced 
visibility due to haze from agricultural fires will persist for 
the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico today. Remnant
volcanic ash from moderate emissions earlier are forecast to 
remain inland over Oaxaca today.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are found across the offshore forecast waters from 
Guatemala to Panama based on recent satellite derived wind data.  
Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 5-7 ft seas in 
southerly swell prevail N of the Equator to about 06N. Gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds are over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north 
of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central
American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica through the rest 
of the week. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal winds and
4-6 ft seas are forecast for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, 
Panama, Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. Afterward, monsoonal
winds will become mainly gentle. Building seas to 8 to 10 ft in 
long period S to SW will propagate across the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight and Fri. Seas of 8 ft 
associated with this swell event will reach the offshore waters 
of western Panama and Costa Rica Fri night into Sat. Reduced 
visibility due to haze from agricultural fires will persist 
across northern central American today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb located well northwest of the area near
36N145W extends a ridge over the forecast region north of 10N 
and west of 110W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for a
moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow, with an area of 
mostly fresh NE trade winds just north of the ITCZ W of 130W. 
Seas over this part of the area are 6-8 ft primarily in NE swell.  
Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ to the Equator. Northerly swell producing seas of 
8 to 10 ft, based on altimeter data, currently dominates the 
waters N of 28N between 120W and 132W, with an area of 8 ft seas 
from 21N to 26N west of 136W based on altimeter data. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region N
of 10N and W of 110W through the upcoming weekend. Mostly fresh 
NE trade winds will persist across the southern periphery of the
ridge, especially west of 120W. Seas associated with the northerly
swell event across the northern forecast waters will subside to 
less than 8 ft today. Long period S to SW swell will cross the
Equator on Fri, and propagate northward reaching about 05N by Fri
night.

$$
GR