658 
AXPZ20 KNHC 242111
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Ashfall Advisory has been discontinued for the waters 
adjacent to the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the state of Oaxaca.
Although the Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W 
continues to vent an ash plume that is spreading SE as observed 
in latest satellite imagery, the ash plume is confined to inland 
southeastern Mexico this afternoon. However, the volcano 
continues to remain active. It is possible that some volcanic 
ash may reach the waters adjacent to the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
the state of Oaxaca tonight into early Thu. Mariners should 
exercise caution. In the event mariners encounter volcanic ash or
floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the 
observation to the National Weather Service by calling 
305-229-4425. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from northern Colombia
near 10N74W to 10N85W to 08N92W to 10N102W to 09N114W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N114W to 07N125W to 05N131W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm 
south of the trough between 82W-89W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ 
between 118W-122W and between 128W-132W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 94W-100W
and between 105W-109W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has been active 
during the past few days. Latest satellite imagery indicates 
that ashfall is presently confined to inland southeastern Mexico.
The volcano continues to remain active. Please refer to the 
Special Features section for future information on this volcano
if the necessary criteria is met for another Ashfall Advisory.

Light to gentle northerly winds are over the offshore waters of 
Baja California. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area, with the exception
of higher seas of 5-7 ft seas in N swell north of Punta Eugenia.
Higher seas of 6-8 ft in N swell are just north of 28N and west 
of 119W. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly
winds and 2-4 ft seas are present in the northern part of the 
Gulf while mainly light and variable winds are noted elsewhere 
with seas in the 1-3 ft range, except for 3-5 ft seas due to a S 
swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail for the offshore waters of central 
and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through 
Fri supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds are expected on Sat. Pulsing fresh to locally
strong winds are expected during the overnight and early morning
hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. Moderate,
with locally fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will occur in the
northern Gulf of California each night. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a 
NW swell will continue to propagate southward across the outer 
offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. Moderate
to locally to fresh NW winds offshore Jalisco and Colima will 
change little through Fri night. Seas with these winds are 5-7 
ft. Reduced visibility due to haze from agricultural fires will 
persist for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico 
through at least Thu.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are noted offshore Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica based on recent ASCAT passes there. Seas
range from 4-6 ft in these waters in S to SW swell. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 5-7 ft seas in southerly 
swell prevail across the offshore waters of southern Costa Rica 
and southward to about 02N. Light and variable winds are over the
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north 
of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the 
central American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica through 
the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal 
winds and 4-6 ft seas are anticipated for the offshore waters of 
Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. 
Afterward, monsoonal winds will become mainly gentle, however, 
seas will build to 7-10 ft in a large southerly swell. Reduced 
visibility due to haze from agricultural fires will persist 
across northern central American through at least Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1032 mb located well northwest of the 
area near 37N144W dominates the forecast region north of 10N and 
west of 110W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for a 
moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow, with an area of 
mostly fresh NE trade winds just north of the ITCZ from 06N to 
14N west of 126W based on latest ASCAT data. Seas over this part
of the area are 8-9 ft due to a N to NE swell. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ. Large northerly swell producing seas of 8-10 ft are 
currently reaching as far south as 25N between 119W-140W, with 
an area of 8 ft seas from 22N to 25N west of 137W per latest 
available altimeter data

For the forecast, the high pressure center will continue to 
dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W through Fri. 
Mostly fresh NE trade winds will continue across the southern 
periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Seas associated 
with the northerly swell event across the northern forecast 
waters will subside to less than 8 ft by early Thu evening.

$$
Aguirre