000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241602
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Ashfall Advisory: Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has 
been active, and it continues to emit volcanic ash. Earlier 
observed volcanic ashfall has dissipated, but new volcanic ash is
seen within 180 to 240 nm ESE of the summit. Some of this 
ashfall may reach the waters adjacent to the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and the state of Oaxaca today. Visibility may be restricted in 
these areas due to the volcanic ashfall through late this 
afternoon based on the latest forecast from the VAAC, Washington.
Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic
ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report 
the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 
305-229-4425. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from northern Colombia
near 10N74W to 10N85W to 08N92W to 11N104W to 09N114W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N114W to 09N122W to 06N132W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm
south of the trough between 92W-100W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 118W-121W and 
between 128W-131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has been active 
during the past few days. An Ashfall Advisory is in effect 
through late this afternoon. Please see the Special Features 
section for more details.

Overnight ASCAT data reveals light to gentle winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are 4-6 ft in this area,
with the exception of higher seas of 5-7 ft seas in N swell N of
Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and 2-4 ft seas are present in the northern part 
of the Gulf while mainly light and variable winds are noted 
elsewhere with seas in the 1-3 ft range, except for 3-5 ft seas 
due to a S swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Otherwise, light 
to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail for the offshore waters 
of central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through 
Fri supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds are expected on Sat. Pulsing fresh to locally
strong winds are expected during the overnight and early morning
hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. Moderate,
with locally fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will occur in the
northern Gulf of California each night. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a 
NW swell will continue to propagate southward across the outer 
offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. From Wed 
evening through Fri, NW winds offshore Jalisco and Colima should
become moderate to locally fresh starting this afternoon, with 
seas reaching the range of 6-7 ft. Reduced visibility due to haze
from agricultural fires will persist for the offshore waters of 
central and southern Mexico today.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are found offshore Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica. Seas range from 4-6 ft in these waters 
in S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds 
with 5-7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail across the offshore 
waters of southern Costa Rica and southward to about 02N. Light 
and variable winds are over the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north 
of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the 
central American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica through 
the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal 
winds and 4-6 ft seas are anticipated for the offshore waters of 
Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. 
Afterward, monsoonal winds will become mainly gentle, however, 
seas will build to 7-10 ft in a large southerly swell. Reduced 
visibility due to haze from agricultural fires will persist 
across northern central American today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb located well northwest of the 
area near 37N144W dominates the forecast region north of 10N and
west of 110W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for 
a moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow, with an area of 
mostly fresh NE trade winds just north of the ITCZ from 06N to 
14N W of 126W based on overnight ASCAT data. Seas over this 
part of the area are 8-9 ft due to a N to NE swell. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.
Large northerly swell producing seas of 8-10 ft are currently 
reaching as far south as 26N between 121W-139W, with an area of 8
ft seas from 22N to 26N west of 137W. Overnight altimeter data 
confirmed the presence of these sea heights.

For the forecast, the high pressure center will continue to 
dominate the region N of 10N and W of 110W through Fri. Mostly 
fresh NE trade winds will continue across the southern periphery 
of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Seas associated with the 
northerly swell event across the northern forecast waters will 
subside to less than 8 ft late tonight into Thu. 

$$
Aguirre