000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Ashfall Advisory: Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has
been active and continues to erupt. Volcanic ash is observed to 
nearly 300 NM ESE to 240 NM SSE of summit, likely reaching parts 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the offshore waters of Oaxaca. 
Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall
through late Wed afternoon based on the latest forecast from the
VAAC, Washington. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners 
encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are 
encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather 
Service by calling 305-229-4425. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from northern Colombia
near 10N74W to 07N90W to 10N105W to 09N111W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N111W to 07N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 86W and 98W, and
from 08N to 10N between 96W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N to 10N between 108W and 115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are 4-6 ft in this 
area, with the exception of higher seas of 5-7 ft seas in N swell
N of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and 2-4 ft seas are present in the northern part
of the Gulf while mainly light and variable winds are noted
elsewhere with seas in the 1-3 ft range, except for 3-5 ft seas 
due to a south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail for the offshore 
waters of central and southern Mexico. The Popocatepetl Volcano 
in Mexico near 19N99W has been active over the past few days.  
An Ashfall Advisory is in effect through late Wed afternoon. 
Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through 
Fri, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Then, moderate
to locally fresh winds are expected on Sat. Pulsing fresh to 
locally strong winds are expected during the overnight and early 
morning hours near Cabo San Lucas through the end of the week. 
Moderate, with locally fresh to strong S to SW gap winds will 
occur in the northern Gulf of California each night. Seas of 5-7 
ft due to a NW swell will continue to propagate southward across
the outer offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. 
From Wed evening through Fri, NW winds off the coast of Jalisco 
and Colima should become moderate to locally fresh, and seas 
reaching 6-7 ft. Reduced visibilities due to haze from agricultural
fires will persist for the offshore waters of central and southern
Mexico today.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are found offshore Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica. Seas range from 4-6 ft in these waters 
in S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds 
with 5-7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail across the offshore 
waters of southern Costa Rica and southward to about 02N. Light 
and variable winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands based on recent satellite derived wind data.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas north 
of the monsoon trough are expected to continue across the central
American offshore waters, north of Costa Rica most of the week. 
Gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoonal winds and 4-6 ft seas
are anticipated for the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia and Ecuador until Fri night. Afterward, monsoonal winds 
will become mainly gentle, however, seas will build to 7-10 ft 
in a large southerly swell. Reduced visibilities due to haze 
from agricultural fires will persist across northern central 
American today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1033 mb located N of area near 38N143W dominates
the forecast region north of 10N and west of 110W. A moderate to
locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of 
this system, with an area of fresh to locally strong NE trade 
winds just north of the ITCZ from 07N to 14N W of 128W based on
scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds based 
on altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail 
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Large northerly swell producing
seas of 8-10 ft are currently reaching as far south as 26N 
between 121W-140W with an area of 8 ft seas from 22N to 26N W of
137W. Altimeter data confirm the presence of these sea heights.

For the forecast, the high pressure center will continue to 
dominate the region N of 10N and W of 110W through Fri. Mostly 
fresh NE trade winds will continue across the southern periphery 
of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Seas, associated with the
northerly swell event across the northern forecast waters, will
subside to less than 8 ft late tonight into Thu. 

$$
GR