000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue May 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from southern Costa Rica across 09N95W to 08N107W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the trough from 01N to 07N between the Colombia coast and 82W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 08N107W across 05N125W to beyond 140W at 03N. Widely scattered moderate convection is near both features from 03N to 10N between 82W and 108W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 108W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A modest surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore from Chiapas, Mexico and Guatemala. Convergent surface winds north of the monsoon trough mentioned above are triggering isolated thunderstorms farther offshore from Oaxaca, Mexico. Latest GeoColor satellite imagery reveals light to moderate haze along and offshore from the central and southern Mexican coast due to agricultural burning. Moderate NW to N winds continue across the offshore waters of Baja California, with an area of moderate to locally fresh winds just southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area, with the exception of 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell near 30N120W. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are present, except 3 to 5 ft in south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate N winds are seen at the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 13N. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of the work-week producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. Pulsing winds of 20 kt are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California at night through Thu ahead of a surface trough forecast to persist over the Baja California Peninsula. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell will gradually propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. By Wed night into Thu, expect moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco with building seas of 6-7 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted across the Papagayo region, while moderate to locally fresh winds are seen per scatterometer data in the western Gulf of Panama, and between the Azuro Peninsula and Coiba Island just offshore western Panama. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate W to NW prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore forecast waters for the next few days. Long-period S to SW swell producing seas of 5-7 ft will continue to cross the Equator through Thu night. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. Looking ahead, seas building to 8-10 ft in long-period SW swell are expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Fri, with little change through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. A moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system, with an area of fresh to strong NE winds from 07N to 11N between 118W and 125W based on scatterometer data. These winds are likely enhanced by convection nearby. Seas are to 8 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Northerly swell, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range, is currently propagating across the N waters, particularly N of 28N between 121W and 137W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region N of 10N and W of 110W this work-week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 120W. Northerly swell, with seas in the 8-10 ft range, will continue to propagate across the northern forecast waters covering the area N of 26N between 120W and 136W on Wed. This swell event is forecast to decay on Thu. $$ Forecaster Chan