000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221924
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 22 2023

Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica Excessive Rainfall: 
Convection continues to flare-up along the monsoon trough E of
95W to the coast of Colombia, and across parts of Colombia,
Panama and Costa Rica. A favorable upper-level pattern will
continue to bring enhanced moisture to this area today, leading
to the potential for additional heavy rainfall. This activity
could lead to significant flooding in the region. Computer 
models indicate that abundant tropical moisture will persist in 
this area over the next couple of days.

Please refer to the latest forecast products from your local or 
national meteorological service for additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
10N75W to 09N90W and to 07N105W. The ITCZ extends from 07N105W 
to 06N113W to 06N126W and to 02N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 84W-
90W, from 03N to 06N between 78W-84W, and within 180 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 120W-127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. A small area of fresh to
strong NW winds is near and within 60 nm southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California. Seas are 4-6 ft W of Baja 
California. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 13N, with seas in the 8 
to 10 ft range based on the most recent altimeter pass. In the 
Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds prevail with 
seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft in south swell at the entrance to 
the Gulf. Light and variable winds are seen across the remainder 
of the Mexican offshore waters with sea heights of 4-6 ft 
primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong to near gale force northerly 
winds and seas of 8-9 ft are present in the Tehuantepec region. 
These winds will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon along 
with seas to around 8 ft. By late tonight, winds will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds, with seas of 5-7 ft due to a long-
period south swell. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected
in the northern Gulf of California at night Tue through Thu 
ahead of a surface trough forecast to persist over the Baja 
California Peninsula. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell will gradually 
propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro 
tonight through Thu. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in
the southern offshore waters due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, and
downwind to about 88W along with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to 
fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere with seas of
6-8 ft in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region
will diminish this afternoon, then develop as fresh SE winds 
tonight and diminish on Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters. Additional 
pulses of long- period SW swell will cross the Equator today with
sea heights mainly in the 5-7 ft range. Heavy showers and 
thunderstorms will continue offshore Costa Rica, Panama and 
Colombia today. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from 
the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by ongoing agricultural fires. Looking ahead, building 
seas of 8-10 ft in long-period SW swell are expected between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the forecast area north of 12N and 
west of 110W. Mainly moderate anticyclonic flow is noted under 
the influence of this system, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ. An area of 8-9 ft seas due to a mix of NE and 
SW long-period swell is located from 07N to 11N between 
116W-124W and from 06N to 10N between 133W-140W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region N
of 10N and W of 110W through at least mid-week. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds will prevail across the southern periphery of
the ridge, especially west of 120W. Northerly swell, with seas 
in the 8-10 ft range, will begin to propagate across the 
northern forecast waters by this evening, covering the area N of 
26N between 120W and 136W by Tue evening. 

$$
Aguirre