000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220317
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica Excessive Rainfall: 
Very heavy rain prevails over portions of western Colombia and 
eastern Panama today. A favorable upper-level pattern will 
continue to bring enhanced moisture to this area through Mon, 
leading to the potential for additional heavy rainfall. This 
activity could lead to significant flooding in the area. 

Please refer to the latest forecast products from your local or 
national meteorological service for additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 
09N90W to 07N105W. The ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 06N120W to 
04N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted S of the monsoon trough to 04.5N between 80W 
and 85W...and from 06N to 09N between 88W and 94W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 06N 
between 98W and 103W...from 07N to 11N between 123W and 127W... 
and from 05N to 08N between 132W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong N
winds in the Tehuantepec extending S to near 14N with seas in the
8 to 10 ft range based on altimeter data. Fresh to locally strong
NW winds prevail off Cabo San Lucas, and near Cabo Corrientes. 
Fresh NW winds are also noted across the offshore waters of 
Jalisco and Colima and downwind to about 17N with seas to 8 ft.
In the Gulf of California mainly light and variable winds 
prevail with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except 3-5 ft at the entrance to 
the Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft W of Baja California. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected in the Tehuantepec region tonight
and Mon morning, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt by early Mon afternoon
with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. This gap wind event will end
about 0000 UTC on Tue. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near
Cabo San Lucas tonight and again Mon night. Moderate to fresh S 
to SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California at 
night Tue through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere through Tue. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell will 
gradually propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo 
San Lazaro Mon night through Thu. Reduced visibilities in haze 
are possible in the southern offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, and
downwind to about 88W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh 
N winds are in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle 
to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere with seas of 6 to 8
ft in SW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo
region tonight, and again Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters.
Additional pulses of long period SW swell will cross the Equator
tonight into Mon with sea heights mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range.
Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore Costa 
Rica, Panama and Colombia through tonight before diminishing in 
coverage and intensity on Mon. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due 
to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Latest scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
NE winds W of a surface trough that extends from 11N132W to 
06N135W. Seas are 8 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh 
trades are noted elsewhere N of the ITCZ and west of 114W. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 5 to 7
ft across the open waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the region N
of 10N and W of 110W through at least mid-week. Fresh trades 
will prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge. 
Northerly swell, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range, will begin to
propagate across the northern forecast waters by Mon evening, 
covering the area N of 26N between 120W and 136W by Tue evening. 

$$
GR