000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Colombia and Panama Excessive Rainfall: Very heavy rain fell over portions of western Colombia and eastern Panama Fri night and Sat morning, and scattered areas of heavy thunderstorms still persist across the area from time to time. A favorable upper-level pattern will continue to bring enhanced moisture to this area through early Mon, leading to the potential for additional heavy rainfall. Rains between now and early Mon could lead to additional significant flooding in the area. Please read the latest forecast products from your local or national meteorological service for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78.5W to 07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 07N110W to 05N120W to 08N130W to 02N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 78W and 107W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface high pressure ridging extends just west of the area. ASCAT satellite wind data from 21/0307 UTC show strong to near gale force N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and these winds likely extend S to 13N now. ASCAT data from around 0500 UTC showed fresh to locally strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes to Manzanillo, but these winds have likely diminished slightly to fresh since that time. Similar winds are occurring near Cabo San Lucas, with moderate NNW winds extending S to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N winds have moved into the waters well offshore Baja California Norte. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail from Cabo San Lucas southward, except 8-11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 4-6 ft W of Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, except 3-5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh NW winds near Cabo Corrientes will diminish this morning. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh this afternoon, then increase again tonight to strong to near gale force, with winds diminishing by Mon afternoon. Winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and again Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue. Moderate NW to N swell will affect the waters west of Baja California Norte Mon night through Tue night. Winds over the northern Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night, beginning Tue night. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details about a heavy rainfall event affecting Colombia and Panama. Some strong showers and thunderstorms are currently occurring offshore of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Fresh NE to E winds are likely occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending W to 88W. Moderate S to SW winds are noted over the waters south of 06N and west of 82W. Gentle or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft from the Guatemala to Costa Rica offshore waters. Seas are generally 7 to 8 ft in S swell from Panama to Ecuador and the Galapagos. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will diminish by the midday hours today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the waters. S swell affecting the area will subside slightly Mon into Tue. Then, a renewed large S swell is likely to enter the offshore waters of South America by Thu night. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through tonight before diminishing in coverage and intensity on Mon. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ and west of 110W, except for an area of gentle winds from 20N-26N between 115W-125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas south of 03N and east of 110W are in the 7-8 ft range in S swell. Seas are 6-8 ft in the trade wind zone north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 18N. For the forecast, N to NE winds over the northern waters may increase to fresh tonight through Tue as a N swell moves south of 30N, increasing seas to 8-10 ft north of 25N late Mon into Wed. At the same time, the area of fresh trade winds will expand a bit N of the ITCZ to 15N, west of 120W, with seas to 8 ft. Winds and seas should diminish somewhat across most of the area by Wed night into Thu. $$ Hagen