000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200400
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A
favorable upper-level pattern will bring enhanced moisture to
western sections of Colombia and eastern Panama over the weekend.
This pattern will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall 
across portions of western Colombia, especially within 90 nm of 
the Pacific Ocean, as well as over eastern Panama, now through
early Mon. Numerous strong convection is currently observed on
satellite imagery over western Colombia. These rains could lead
to significant flooding in the area. Please read the latest 
forecast products from your local or national meteorological 
service for additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N100W to 05N114W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N114W to 04N130W to beyond 02N140W. 
Scattered strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N east of 83W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 10N between 83W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers prevail over the waters from the entrance to
the Gulf of California southward to offshore Guerrero. A weak 
pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico. 
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Fresh NW winds are off Cabo Corrientes to near
Manzanillo. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range over the open waters 
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, winds near Cabo Corrientes will increase to 
fresh to strong early Sat through Sat night. Fresh to strong N to
NNE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late 
night to early morning hours through Mon, with near-gale force 
winds possible Sat night into early Sun. Winds in the southern 
Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh to
locally strong Sun night and Mon night. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will 
prevail through the forecast period, except in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and also offshore of the Manzanillo area, where seas
are likely to exceed 8 ft over portions of the weekend. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore
waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event affecting western Colombia and eastern 
Panama. Scattered strong convection is currently occurring 
offshore Colombia and Panama.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, extending W to 88W. Moderate winds are found west of 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range from the Guatemala
offshore waters to the Costa Rica offshore waters. Large S to SW
swell continues to affect areas south of 06N. Seas are 8 to 11 
ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the Papagayo region during the late night and early 
morning hours through Sat night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail across the waters. A set of long period S to 
SW swell will continue to spread northward across the area 
through tonight before gradually decaying Sat into Sat night. 
Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to 
the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing 
agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ to 20N 
and west of 130W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 22N and W 
of 130W. Moderate winds are south of 02N and east of 120W. Gentle
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas south of 07N and east of 115W 
are in the 8-9 ft range in S swell, with seas of 5-7 ft 
prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the set of southerly swell over the southern 
waters will gradually subside tonight into the weekend.

$$
Hagen