000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191434
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A
favorable upper-level pattern will bring enhanced moisture to
western sections of Colombia and eastern Panama over the weekend.
This pattern will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall 
across portions of western Colombia, especially within 90 nm of 
the Pacific Ocean, as well as over eastern Panama, beginning
tonight and lasting through early Mon. These rains could lead to
moderate flooding in the area. Please read the latest forecast
products from your local or national meteorological service for 
additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N93W to 08N103W to 
05N120W. The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N 
to 07N east of 92W, from 04N to 20N between 98W and 115W, and 
from 00N to 06N between 120W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters of 
Mexico. Light to gentle winds are noted west of the Baja 
California peninsula, as well as over the northern and central 
Gulf of California. Moderate winds are in the southern Gulf of 
California and near Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle winds are
noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range over the open 
waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-3 ft are noted over the Gulf of 
California, except 3-5 ft in the southern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, winds near Cabo Corrientes will increase to 
fresh to strong early Sat through Sat night. Fresh to strong N to
NNE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late 
night to early morning hours through early Mon morning, with 
near-gale force winds possible Sat night into early Sun. Winds in
the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas will 
pulse to fresh to locally strong Sun night and Mon night. Mainly 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 
ft will prevail through the forecast period, except in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec and also offshore of the Manzanillo area, where 
seas could exceed 8 ft over the weekend. Reduced visibilities in 
haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to 
smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event expected to affect western Colombia and
eastern Panama over the weekend.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, extending W to 88W. Moderate N to NE winds are noted 
across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh winds are found 
west of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range offshore Central 
America. Seas are 7 to 10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, in long period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the Papagayo region during the late night and early 
morning hours through Sat night. Southerly winds between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands will remain moderate to locally fresh 
through this afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail across the waters. A set of long period S to SW swell 
will spread northward across the area through tonight before 
gradually decaying Sat into Sat night. Reduced visibilities in 
haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore 
waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of the ITCZ to 20N 
and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 22N and W of
130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 03N and east 
of 105W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas south 
of 07N and east of 115W are in the 8-10 ft range in S swell, with
seas of 5-7 ft prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the set of southerly swell over the southern 
waters will continue to spread northward today, mainly east of 
115W. This swell will bring seas of 8 ft or greater as far north 
as 08N today before seas gradually subside tonight into the 
weekend.

$$
AL