577 
AXPZ20 KNHC 190908
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A
favorable upper-level pattern will bring enhanced moisture to
western sections of Colombia and eastern Panama over the weekend.
This pattern will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall 
across portions of western Colombia, especially within 90 nm of 
the Pacific Ocean, as well as over eastern Panama, beginning
tonight and lasting through early Mon. These rains could lead to
moderate flooding in the area. Please read the latest forecast
products from your local or national meteorological service for 
additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N110W to 05N121W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05N121W to 02.5N133W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 08N between 77W and 93W, from 03N to 16N between 98W and 115W,
and from 00N to 06N between 117W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the offshore waters of 
Mexico. Gentle W to NW winds are noted west of the Baja 
California peninsula. Gentle winds are in the northern and 
central Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring
in the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas. A
recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows fresh to locally
strong NW winds near the coast from Jalisco to Michoacan. Gentle
or weaker winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 
ft range over the open waters off Mexico, except up to 7 ft
offshore Jalisco through Michoacan. Seas of 6 to 7 ft were
measured by a recent altimeter satellite that passed over that
area from 16.5N to 18N between 103W and 104W, and these values
likely extend N to 19N and W to 106W. Seas of 2-3 ft are noted 
over the Gulf of California, except 3-5 ft in the southern Gulf
of California. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen well
offshore, more than 180 nm off Guerrero and Michoacan.

For the forecast, winds near Cabo Corrientes will increase to
fresh to strong early Sat through Sat night. Fresh to strong N 
to NNE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the 
late night to early morning hours starting tonight and 
continuing through early Mon morning, with near-gale force winds
possible Sat night into early Sun. Winds in the southern Gulf of
California and near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh to 
locally strong Sun night and Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail 
through the forecast period, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
and also offshore of the Manzanillo area, where seas could exceed
8 ft over the weekend. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible
in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
heavy rainfall event expected to affect western Colombia and
eastern Panama over the weekend.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are likely occurring over the
Gulf of Papagayo region, extending W to 88W. Moderate N to NE
winds are noted across the Gulf of Panama. Recent ASCAT satellite
wind data show moderate to fresh SSE winds west of Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range offshore Central America. Seas are 7
to 10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, in long
period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, offshore winds will continue to pulse to fresh
to locally strong in the Papagayo region during the late night 
and early morning hours through Sat night. Southerly winds 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain moderate to
locally fresh through this afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail across the waters. A set of long 
period S to SW swell will continue to spread northward across the
area through tonight before gradually decaying Sat into Sat 
night. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the 
Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced 
by ongoing agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 31N135W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
trades N of the ITCZ to 16N and west of 125W. Light to gentle 
winds prevail N of 22N and W of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh 
SE to S winds are south of 03N and east of 105W. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas south of 07N and east 
of 115W are in the 8-10 ft range in S swell, with seas of 5-7 ft
prevailing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the set of southerly swell with seas of 7-10 
ft over the southern waters will continue to spread northward
today, mainly east of 115W. This swell will bring seas of 8 ft 
or greater as far north as 08N today before seas gradually 
subside tonight into the weekend.

$$
Hagen