000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171453 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N93W. The ITCZ extends from 08N93W to 02N133W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 97W and 112W, and from 00N to 07N between 117W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters of Mexico. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula as well as over the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are mainly 6-8 ft over the open waters off Mexico in primarily S-SW swell across the waters. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Seasonally hazy conditions persist from near the coast to offshore with reductions to visibility around 5 nm near S and SW Mexico per recent coastal observations. For the forecast, fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night/early morning hours starting late Fri night. Winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas tonight and again Sun night, and near Cabo Corrientes Fri night and Sat night due to localized tight pressure gradients. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. SW swell with seas of 7-8 ft offshore Mexico will gradually subside through tonight. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period. Reduced visibilities in haze will be possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are from 250 nm offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail in S-SW swell. Seasonally hazy conditions persist from near the coast to offshore of Costa Rica northward, with possible reductions to visibility around 5 nm near S and SW Mexico. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region during the late night hours starting late Thu night through Sat night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters. Seas of 5-8 ft in S-SW swell will subside through this evening. A new set of S-SW swell will arrive across the Ecuador to Galapagos Islands waters late tonight, building seas to 7-9 ft through Fri night before decaying slightly thereafter. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 27N130W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ to 18N and west of 130W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range mainly in southerly swell across the discussion waters. For the forecast, a weak front or trough will move into the NW waters through tonight, with an associated set of NW swell moving just SE of 30N140W by this afternoon, then decaying by early Thu. Meanwhile, the southerly swell will decay across the remainder of the waters this afternoon and beyond. A new set of southerly swell with seas of 7-10 ft will cross 03.4S late tonight. $$ AL