000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170724
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0640 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W to across
Panama to 08N94W. The ITCZ extends from 08N94W to 05.5N120W to
beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 00N to 07N between 118W and 132W. Isolated to 
widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10.5N 
between 95W and 114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the
offshore waters of Mexico with mainly light to gentle winds,
except locally moderate nearshore of SW Mexico and nearshore
either side of the Baja California Peninsula per recent ASCAT
scatterometer passes. Seas are mainly 7-9 ft in primarily S-SW
swell across the waters, except 6-8 ft offshore Oaxaca and
Chiapas, and from Cabo Corrientes to the entrance to the Gulf of
California. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California,
except 4-6 near the entrance. Seasonally hazy conditions persist
from near the coast to offshore with reductions to visibility 
around 5 nm near S and SW Mexico per recent coastal observations.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are developing in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and will continue through the remainder 
of the morning hours. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night/early morning hours
starting late Fri night. Winds may pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas
tonight and again Sun night, and near Cabo Corrientes Fri night 
and Sat night due to localized tight pressure gradients. Mainly 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. SW
swell with seas of 7-9 ft offshore Mexico will gradually subside
through tonight. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail for the remainder 
of the forecast period. Reduced visibilities in haze will be 
possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are from 250 nm offshore Ecuador to
the Galapagos Islands, and in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds prevail. Seas of 5-8 ft in S-SW 
swell prevail, except 3-6 ft in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.
Seasonally hazy conditions persist from near the coast to 
offshore of Costa Rica northward, with possible reductions to 
visibility around 5 nm near S and SW Mexico.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to strong in
the Papagayo region during the late night/early morning hours
starting late Thu night through Sat night/early Sun. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters, locally 
fresh from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands S of the Equator late
Thu night/Fri morning. Seas of 5-8 ft in S-SW swell will subside
through this evening. A new set of S-SW swell will arrive across
the Ecuador to Galapagos Islands waters late tonight/early Thu, 
building seas to 7-9 ft there through Fri night, then decaying 
slightly thereafter. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible 
from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke
produced by ongoing agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N134W to 23N139.5W.
Scattered showers are possible near the front along with 
moderate S-SW winds. High pressure of 1020 mb is centered ahead 
of the front near 28N130W. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of
20N under the high and associated ridging. Moderate trades 
dominate S of 20N and W of 90W, with light to gentle winds 
elsewhere, except for locally fresh trades from 05N to 16N and W
of 130W. Seas of 6-9 ft in mainly southerly swell prevails 
across the open waters.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate to a
remnant trough today. Another weak front or trough will move 
into the NW waters early today through tonight, with an 
associated set of NW swell with seas of 7-10 ft moving just SE of
30N140W by this afternoon, decaying by early Thu. Meanwhile, the
southerly swell will decay across the remainder of the waters 
this afternoon and beyond. A new set of southerly swell with 
seas of 7-10 ft will cross 03.4S late tonight/early Thu with 
such sea heights forecast to remain from around 01N southward
through the end of the week, decaying slightly thereafter.

$$
Lewitsky