000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140756 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08.5N78W to 07N95W to 05N114W. The ITCZ extends from 05N114W to 04N130W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 77W and 86W, from 02N to 05N between 92W and 112W, elsewhere from 01N to 10N between 109W and 127W, and from 04N to 07N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the waters, except locally fresh within 60 nm of Baja California from Cabo San Lucas NW to Punta Eugenia. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell across the open waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE-S winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail, except 3-5 ft near the entrance. Hazy skies persist across the near and offshore waters from Las Tres Marias to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from agricultural fires. For the forecast, little change in the pressure pattern is forecast with mainly continued gentle to moderate winds area- wide through Thu. The exception will be a surge of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night to early morning hours this morning, then again Sun night into Mon and Mon night into Tue. A set of southerly swell will arrive offshore Mexico Tue through Wed building seas to around 8 ft. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds are in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, along with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere, except to 6 ft in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the offshore waters under a light pressure pattern, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue offshore from 01N to 06N, where winds and seas may be higher. Hazy skies persist from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires, with visibilities likely near 5 nm offshore from the Gulf of Fonseca to Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NE-E winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through this morning, and again Thu night. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds will then prevail there tonight through Mon morning, and again Wed night into Thu morning. Elsewhere, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist through Thu. Building SW swell will reach the Galapagos Islands tonight with peak seas of 7-9 ft, then reach the nearshore waters of Central America early on Tue with peak seas of 6-7 ft there. New SW swell should reach the Galapagos waters early Thu, with seas possibly building to 7-9 ft across the offshore waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Reduced visibilities in haze are expected from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1021 mb high pressure centered well N of the area near 36N133W or approximately 500 nm WSW of San Francisco Bay and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E tradewinds from around 05N to 18N and west of around 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft across this area per recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters, except light to gentle near the monsoon trough from 03N to 13N and E of 110W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell just SE of 30N140W ahead of an approaching cold front which extends NE from near Maui. Seas are 5-8 ft across the remainder of the waters, highest N of 28N between 122W and 128W in relatively fresh N swell, and S of the Equator west of 100W in building S-SW swell. For the forecast, the cold front W of 30N140W will enter the NW waters this afternoon and evening with a thin and brief band of fresh to strong S-SW winds ahead of it. NW swell along with this system will continue to push SE, with seas of 8-10 ft N of 22N and W of 134W through Mon. The front and swell will dissipate and decay thereafter. A trailing front or trough will move into the NW waters by mid-week, with another set of at least 8-10 ft NW swell. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next several days. S-SW swell of 8-10 ft will breach the Equator between 90W and 130W this afternoon through the early part of the week before decaying, with a similar set and coverage by Thu. Elsewhere, seas of 5-8 ft in mixed swells will prevail, occasionally 7-10 ft across the moderate to fresh trade area. $$ Lewitsky