000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120750 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from across Panama to the Gulf of Papagayo near 11N86W to 06.5N98W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N98W to 05N115W to 04N134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 79W and 85W, from 00N to 02N between 88W and 91W, from 03N to 05N between 107W and 112W, and from 02N to 05N between 122W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between a 1022 mb high at 31N130W and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW to N winds within 60-120 NM of the Baja California Peninsula. Associated seas are 6-8 ft per recent altimeter data. Seas are 5-7 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, in NW swell west of 110W, and in S-SW swell east of 110W. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds cover the remainder of the waters north of 20N and west of 109W. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds prevail south of 20N. In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds prevail except for localized moderate to fresh offshore wind surges, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft near the entrance in S-SW swell. Hazy skies persist across the near and offshore waters from Manzanillo to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from agricultural fires. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through this evening, before winds begin to diminish. Seas of 6-8 ft will persist through this afternoon, then will be 5-7 ft area-wide through early next week. The high pressure near 31N130W will shift northward and weaken through the weekend, leading to a weak pressure gradient across the region, and gentle to moderate winds area-wide Sat through Tue, except for a possible surge of fresh to strong N-NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue morning due to a temporary and locally tight pressure gradient. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S-SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is supporting winds of only light to gentle speeds across the majority of the Central America and northern South America offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, except 3-5 ft in the Lee of the Galapagos Islands, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia, Panama and Ecuador to the west of mid-level troughing. Hazy skies persist from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires. For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist across the offshore waters through early next week. Moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh each night through early morning. Building SW swell to around 8 ft should begin reaching the Galapagos Islands Sun night, and reach the nearshore waters of Central America on Tue while decaying. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshores due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between a 1022 mb subtropical high pressure at 31N130W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 04N to 21N and west of around 120W. Seas are 6-9 ft across this area. Light to gentle variable winds and 4-5 ft seas in mixed swell are north of 25N and west of 126W near the high. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate, with mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds through Sat, with seas generally remaining 6-9 ft in merging NW and S swell, and NE wind waves. By Sat afternoon through Mon, the trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high pressure north of the area shifts farther northward and weakens. Fresh to locally strong winds north of the area offshore Point Conception, California will send fresh N seas of 7-9 ft south of 30N to 28N between 120W and 128W Sat afternoon through the remainder of the weekend. A cold front will move slowly into the far NW waters Sun evening, with a brief period of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. The front will weaken and gradually dissipate through Tue. NW swell generated well NW of the area will move into the NW waters Fri night through Mon to produce seas of 8-10 ft north of 20N and west of 135W. Meanwhile, the long-period S to SW swell of around 8 ft along and south of the Equator will linger. New cross-equatorial S-SW swell should reach the Equator late Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of the ITCZ early Mon through Tue before decaying. $$ Lewitsky