000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110217
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W
to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to beyond 07N140W.  
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N-10N
west of 125W and south of 06N east of 88W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a 1023 mb high at 30N131W and a dissipating
cold front over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW to N 
winds within 120 NM of the Baja peninsula. Elsewhere, winds are
gentle to moderate. Seas are 7-8 ft west of the Baja peninsula
primarily in NW wind waves, 7-8 ft south of SW and S Mexico in S
swell, and 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through Fri 
evening. High pressure at 131W will shift northwestward and 
weaken through the weekend, leading to gentle to moderate winds 
area wide Sat through Mon. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is forcing winds of 
only light to gentle speeds across this region. Seas are 6-8 ft 
in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the seasonally tranquil conditions will 
prevail across the Central American and equatorial waters through
early next week. Large SW swell should begin reaching the 
Galapagos Islands on Mon. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible from the Guatemala to Costa Rica offshores due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1023 mb subtropical high pressure at 
30N131W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 07N-22N 
west of 112W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 
8-9 ft from 07N-20N west of 100W in a combination of S to SW 
swell and NE wind waves. South of 07N, seas are 6-8 ft in SW to S
swell. North of 20N, seas are 6-8 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds 
through Sat, with seas generally remaining 8-9 ft in merging NW 
swell, S swell, and NE wind waves. By Sat afternoon through Mon,
the trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high 
pressure north of the area shifts farther northward and weakens. 
The large, long-period S to SW swell currently dominating seas 
today across the waters S of 20N will gradually abate. Looking 
ahead, new cross-equatorial S swell should reach the equator 
late Sun and build seas 8-11 ft south of the ITCZ by Mon.

$$
Landsea