000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102130
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N74W to 08N91W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N91W to 07.5N107W to 05.5N131W to beyond 
04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
00.5N-07.5N E of 87W to the coast of Colombia, and from 04.5N-09N
between 122W-138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a subtropical ridge along 27N-28N and a 
surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N winds 
west of the Baja peninsula and extends to 20N. This is occurring
as a weak cold front is moving across Baja Norte and the northern
Gulf of California. Strong and very gusty W gap winds diminished
very quickly this morning, leaving gentle to moderate N to NW
winds this afternoon across the northern Gulf of California,
behind the weakening cold front. Seas remain 3 to 6 ft across
this portion of the Gulf and will continue to subside through the
evening hours. Elsewhere, NW to W winds are gentle to moderate 
across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters between Las
Tres Marias and Tehuantepec. Seas are 6-8 ft west of Baja, 6-7 
ft in the waters south of Cabo Corrientes, and 2-5 ft in the 
central and southern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through Fri as
high pressure meanders to the NW along about 130W. The high
pressure will shift NW over the weekend and weaken the local
pressure gradient. This will lead to gentle to moderate winds 
across the entire area Sat through Mon. Reduced visibilities in 
haze are possible in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to 
smoke produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is forcing winds of 
only light to gentle speeds across this region. However, 
moderate gap winds are noted across the Papagayo region. Seas 
are 5-7 ft in the Central American offshores and 6-8 ft in SW 
swell in the equatorial offshores. Active convection is along the
W coast of Colombia and extends offshore to near 87W, where
stronger winds are occurring.

For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will prevail 
across the Central American and equatorial waters through the 
weekend. Large SW swell over the equatorial waters will 
gradually diminish through Thu. Reduced visibility in haze is 
likely from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires, with areas of visibilities 5 nm or less 
possible. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial SW swell will reach
the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador waters on Mon, raising seas to 
7-9 ft by Mon night, then move into the Central America waters on
Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1023 mb subtropical high pressure at 
30N132W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 07N to 22N,
west of 112W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 
8-10 ft in a combination of S to SW swell and NE wind waves 
south of 22N and west of 112W. Seas are 6-7 ft in NW swell
farther to the N and 6-7 ft in S to SW swell south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds 
through Sat, with seas generally remaining 8-10 ft in merging NW
swell, S swell, and NE wind waves. By Sat afternoon, the trades 
are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high pressure 
N of the area shifts farther northward. The large, long-period S
to SW swell currently dominating seas today across the waters S 
of 20N will gradually abate. By Thu night, the S to SW swell
across the waters S of the ITCZ will subside below 8 ft, with 
tradewind- driven waves remaining in the 7-8 ft range through 
Sat.

Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial S swell will reach the
equator late Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of the ITCZ by Mon
morning.

$$
Stripling