287 AXPZ20 KNHC 051558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 06N91W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 07N114W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 03S to 07N E of 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 105W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge centered by a 1027 mb high near 37N157W extends SE to offshore of Cabo San Lucas. This ridge is combining with weak low pressure across the northern Gulf of California to produce moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja Sur waters, and gentle to moderate N to NW winds along the Gulf of California. Seas are 7 to 8 ft off the Baja California waters and to 3 ft along the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Moderate haze caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters from near Manzanillo to Tehuantepec. For the forecast, low pressure along California will maintain gentle NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere offshore of Baja California to 20N today. Winds will become NW at fresh to locally strong speeds Sat through Mon as a low pressure deepens and moves further inland and high pressure shifts closer to the region. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters E of Manzanillo through Tue. Reduced visibilities in haze should be expected between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec today due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds continue across the Papagayo region this morning, extending to 91W, with seas at 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are present at the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell exist across the rest of the central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds with 5 to 9 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are evident south of the Galapagos Islands and offshore from Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will persist from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 91W through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Moderate southerly swell will continue across all offshore waters today before subsiding this weekend. Then large SW swell will reach the Galapagos waters early Tue. Reduced visibility in haze will continue today from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high situated offshore of Baja California near 24N123W earlier tonight has collapsed, leaving a weak ridge extending southeastward to SE Mexico. This pressure pattern is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in decaying NW swell north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds from 06N to 20N and west of 115W, and from the ITCZ to 18N between 110W and 115W. Seas in both areas range from 7 to 9 ft in a mix of moderate NW swell and NE tradewind seas. Light to gentle winds exist near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. Gentle to moderate SE winds are present south of the Equator where mixed cross equatorial swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 15N west of 110W for the next several days. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 26N and west of 125W Fri into Sat before dissipating Sat night. As this occurs, high pressure to the north will freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N through at least Mon, helping to maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large SW swell will reach the equator Mon afternoon, building seas to 9 ft Mon night and Tue. $$ Ramos