000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 08.5N92W. An ITCZ continues from 08.5N92W to 08N102W, where a surface trough is located near 10N106W, then the ITCZ resumes from 06N110W across 04.5N125W to beyond 140W at 05N. A second ITCZ in the Southern Hemisphere stretches from 03S97W across 03S110W to beyond 120W at 03.5N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 05N between 80W and 90W, and near the surface trough from 05N to 13N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 200 nm south of the second ITCZ. Widely scattered showers are evident up to 100 nm along either side of the first ITCZ west of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high near 24N121W continues to supply moderate to locally fresh northerly winds west of the Baja California Peninsula, at the central and southern Gulf of California and just west of Cabo Corrientes. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft west of Baja California and Cabo Corrientes, and 2 to 4 ft at the central and southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate SW gap winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds with 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell exist across the southern Mexico offshore waters. Moderate smoke and haze caused by agricultural fires in Mexico has reduced visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters west of Cabo Corrientes, and of southern Mexico. For the forecast, westerly gap winds at the northern Gulf of California will reach fresh to locally strong tonight, then gradually diminish Fri morning. Low pressure drifting southeastward along the central California coast will maintain gentle to moderate with locally fresh W to NW winds, west and southwest of Baja California through Fri. These winds will become moderate to fresh Fri night through Mon as the low pressure moves inland and high pressure shifts closer to the region. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters E of Manzanillo through Mon. Reduced visibility west of Cabo Corrientes and offshore from southern Mexico, due to haze produced by agricultural fires will continue into Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen across the Gulf of Papagayo, and near Gulf of Santa Elena. Gentle to moderate northerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in gentle to moderate southerly swell are present at the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in gentle to moderate southerly swell exist for the rest of the central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are evident near the Galapagos Islands and offshore from Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly gap winds will persist from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 90W through Mon night. These winds will briefly decrease to between moderate and fresh during late afternoon hours. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Moderate southerly swell will linger across all offshore waters through Fri before subsiding this weekend. Then large SW swell should reach the Galapagos waters late Mon night. Reduced visibility offshore from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras due to haze produced by agricultural fires will continue into Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1018 mb high is situated east of Baja California near 24N121W, gentle to moderate NW to NE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in decaying NW swell are present north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds from 10N to 20N and west of 115W, and from the ITCZ to 10N west of 110W. Seas in both areas range from 6 to 8 ft in a mix of moderate northerly and southerly swells. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Light to gentle winds exist near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator. Gentle to moderate SE winds are present south of the Equator. Seas in both areas are from 5 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft between 05N and 15N west of 110W for the next several days. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 26N and west of 125W Fri into Sat before dissipating Sat night. As this occurs, high pressure to the north will freshen the winds across the trade-wind belt south of 20N through at least Mon, with seas building 8 to 10 ft. $$ Forecaster Chan