000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N85W through 07N95W to 05N104W. 
An ITCZ continues from 05N104W through 07N125W to beyond 140W at
06N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found south 
of the trough from 03N to 07N between the Colombia coast and 82W,
and near the trough/ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 96W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail
over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula as well as
west of Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 
seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas, and light haze due to 
agricultural fires are present across the southern Mexico 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will reach strong to near-gale force tonight through 
early Thu morning, then diminish to between moderate and fresh by
Thu noon. Northerly winds west of Baja California should become 
fresh this weekend. Gentle to moderate seas are expected across 
all the Mexican offshore waters through this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Convergent easterly winds north of the monsoon trough are
generating isolated thunderstorms off the coast of Guatemala and
El Salvador. A trough of low pressure is triggering scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Colombia and
northern Ecuador. Moderate with locally fresh winds and seas of 
3 to 5 ft are found near the Papagayo region. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range from 4 to 5 ft north of the 
equator, and 5 to 7 ft south of the equator. Light haze due to 
agricultural fires is visible in the Guatemala, El Salvador and 
Nicaragua offshore waters.

For the forecast, trade winds funneling through the mountain 
valleys along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border will cause 
nighttime fresh to strong easterly gap winds and rough seas 
across the Gulf of Papagayo, and near the Gulf of Santa Elena 
from late tonight through the weekend. Gentle to moderate breezes
will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Southerly swell 
will increase to moderate in the waters near Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands tonight through Fri before subsiding this 
weekend. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge prevails across the waters north of 20N. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to ENE 
winds north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate easterly winds are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ. 
Light to gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Combined seas 
of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 20N. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are 
found south of 20N and west of 130W. Seas in 4 to 7 ft are noted
elsewhere north of the Equator. South of the Equator to 3.4S, 
seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range in S swell.

For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly 
swell to cause 7 to 9 seas between 05N and 15N west of 115W for 
the next several days. Winds and seas will diminish north of 20N 
Thu as high pressure builds farther north of the area. A weak 
cold front will move into the waters north of 20N and west of 
120W Fri into Sat.

$$

Forecaster Chan