000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031732 AAA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1605 UTC Wed May 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N107W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is found south of the
trough from 04N to 06N between the Colombia coast and 82W and
up to 200 nm along either side of the trough between 96W and
107W. An ITCZ continues from 05N107W through 06N125W to beyond 
140W at 04N. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm
north of the ITCZ.

Updated sections below

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail
over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula as well as
west of Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 
seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas, and moderate haze due to
agricultural fire are present across the southern Mexico 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will reach strong to near-gale force tonight through 
early Thu morning, then diminish to between moderate and fresh by
Thu noon. Northerly winds west of Baja California should become 
fresh this weekend. Gentle to moderate seas are expected across 
all the Mexican offshore waters through this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found over the
Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 
range from 4 to 5 ft north of the equator, and 5 to 7 ft south 
of the equator. Moderate smoke due to agricultural fires is
visible in the Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, trade winds funneling through the mountain 
valleys along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border will cause 
nighttime fresh to strong easterly gap winds and rough seas 
across the Gulf of Papagayo, and near the Gulf of Santa Elena 
from late tonight through the weekend. Gentle to moderate breezes
will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Southerly swell 
will increase to moderate in the waters near Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands tonight through Fri before subsiding this 
weekend. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge prevails across the waters north of 20N. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north 
of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds 
are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Light to gentle winds are 
noted south of the ITCZ. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are present 
north of 20N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are found south of 20N and west 
of 130W. Seas in the 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere north of the 
Equator. South of the Equator to 3.4S, seas are in the 6 to 9 ft
range in S swell.

For the forecast, NW to N swell north of 18N will propagate into
the deep tropics this afternoon, reinforcing the seas west of 
115W. Winds and seas will diminish north of 20N Thu as high 
pressure builds farther north of the area. This pattern will 
support moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 9 ft seas over the
tropical Pacific west of 115W. A weak cold front will move into 
the waters north of 20N and west of 120W Fri into Sat.

$$

Forecaster Chan